[Gunnair]

No, he can't, unless he's offered an alternative that he doesn't want, which is war. Beyond combat, war would shut down his gas sales as well which would hurt him as Russia will be quickly isolated economically and politically.

[andyt]

And the EU would freeze in the dark, as you yourself pointed out. That would hurt their economy as well.

Neither side really wants all out war here, but my guess Putin is willing to go down that road a lot further than we are.

Maybe partition at this point is the best or only option.

Send all the ships on maneuvers you want, put our ground troops on alert, whatever. I don't think it will accomplish much, since Putin knows we have so much less skin in the game than he does, we are very very unlikely to use them. Nor am I at all sure we should use them.

[Gunnair]

andyt andyt:

And the EU would freeze in the dark, as you yourself pointed out. That would hurt their economy as well.

Neither side really wants all out war here, but my guess Putin is willing to go down that road a lot further than we are.

Maybe partition at this point is the best or only option.

Send all the ships on maneuvers you want, put our ground troops on alert, whatever. I don't think it will accomplish much, since Putin knows we have so much less skin in the game than he does, we are very very unlikely to use them. Nor am I at all sure we should use them.

At this point, yes, Putin likely has more resolve. That being said, it's premature to say that Europe/NATO/US will tuck tail and run. Bloodshed in Syria can be ignored because it's in the ME where bloodshed seems normal. Have that happen in the Ukraine and things might be different.

[andyt]

$1:

Of potentially even greater concern than Russia's seizure of majority ethnic Russian Crimea are eastern swathes of the country, where most ethnic Ukrainians speak Russian as a native language.

Those areas saw more demonstrations on Sunday after violent protests on Saturday, and for a second day pro-Moscow demonstrators hoisted flags at government buildings and called for Russia to defend them. Kiev said Russia had sent hundreds of its citizens across the border to stage the protests.

So far there has been no sign of Russian military action outside Crimea, but Kiev officials accused Moscow of being behind the pattern of violent protests in eastern cities.

The worst violence took place in Kharkiv, where scores of people were hurt on Saturday when thousands of pro-Russian activists, some brandishing axe handles and chains, stormed the regional government and fought pitched battles with a smaller number of supporters of Ukraine's new authorities.

In Donetsk, Yanukovich's home city, the local government building was flying the Russian flag for the second day on Sunday. The local authorities have called for a referendum on the region's status, a move Kiev says is illegal. A pro-Russian "self-defence" unit held a second day of mass protests, attracting about 1,000 demonstrators carrying Russian flags.

Ludmila Petrova, 35, described the new authorities in Kiev as "slaves of the European Union" and said she favoured Putin's declaration of the right to intervene.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/03/01/pu ... in-ukraine


If NATO had their act together, I would actually support them putting in ground troops to help out the Ukrainian army to keep the Russkies in Crimea. However, as the above shows, there are other areas in Ukraine sympathetic to Russia, and they're not all ethnic Russians, as some on this forum want to make out. The pro-Russia violent protests have as much legitimacy as the pro-Western ones did in Kiev. I can't see it ending well if Ukraine or even Nato sent troops to that region. So that would mean the partition of Ukraine, with the valuable industrial and coal bearing portion going to Russia. What would the West get? A basketcase portion of Ukraine, as far as I can make out. Is that worth it? Maybe to show we're willing to act to contain Russia it is.

Meanwhile the Chinese are laughing. Fucking tripartite world.

[Canadian_Mind]

Something about the natural gas - it is march. And while it's been a bitter cold winter here in Canada (and still is), it's mostly above 0 right now in Europe. Yes it would suck to get the gas cut off, but it's something they could muster through if they had too. So I don't really think it's as big of a concern as everyone makes it out to be.

[andyt]

I guess if you see this whole thing thru the lens of Hitler and Munich, it would make sense to muster, bear any burden, pay any price to stop the Russian Bear. Not sure that is really applicable tho. As I say, China must be laughing.

[saturn_656]

Unsurprisingly, Germany seems to be the spoiler in the western camp. They seem to think the key to fighting an invading force is negotiation.

Do they remember nothing before '45? Did we beat them that hard?

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-head ... -2-469515/

[Jabberwalker]

saturn_656 saturn_656:

Unsurprisingly, Germany seems to be the spoiler in the western camp. They seem to think the key to fighting an invading force is negotiation.

Do they remember nothing before '45? Did we beat them that hard?

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-head ... -2-469515/

Yes, we did.

[MeganC]

To me it looks like Russia will take what they want and the west will make a bunch of noise and then forget about the whole thing in a few months when Lindsay Lohan or Beebs does something more interesting.

[saturn_656]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... a-standoff

This is a worthwhile read, written a reporter inside the Ukrainian military facility besieged by Russian troops.

Apparently the Russian troops are demanding they surrender their base and gear and declare their loyalty to the Crimean Gov't.

The Ukrainians say they won't give up anything without a fight.

[saturn_656]

$1:

The Ukrainian State Border Service says two Russian assault landing ships arrived illegally in the port of Sevastopol, Crimea, on Sunday. It named the ships as the Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Northern Fleet and the Georgy Pobedonosets of the Baltic Fleet. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol.

[martin14]

Polish Media: Kaliningrad, unexpected about 3.500 Ru soldiers exercise near the Polish border.

[ShepherdsDog]

Russian incursions into Poland would be a whole different ball game.

[Delwin]

Russia And China 'In Agreement' Over Ukraine

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-condemned-g7-over-crimea-031350931.html#XJHtnmU

$1:

China has always upheld the principles of diplomacy and the fundamental norms of international relations.

[Jabberwalker]

Naturally. China reserves the right to crush her neighbours, as well. (see: Tibet)