[cabrio]

It's hard to accept, the conflict if far from its end. And not just because of Putin. It's more about people of Lugansk and Donetsk, who mostly don't feel themselves as Ukrainians and Putin exploites that to ruin Ukraine as a state.

[Winnipegger]

This doesn't make sense. The telephone poll published by the Washington Post states 70% of the people who live in east Ukraine want the borders to stay as they are now. The proportion is 93% for west Ukraine. Just Russian speaking people in east Ukraine: 58% want Ukraine to remain united, 27% want to allow regions to succeed, 15% don't know.

But the people of east Ukraine want rights for their Russian language and culture, and want more autonomy. And to emphasize this point: more autonomy, but as part of Ukraine. That does not mean "people of Lugansk and Donetsk don't feel themselves as Ukrainians". In fact that means the separatists are a minority. They're a minority with guns, but a minority.

This is why I suggested treating east Ukraine like Quebec. That gives the people who live there what they want, while keeping them as part of Ukraine. What Putin is trying to do is convince the people of Lugansk and Donetsk that Ukraine is the enemy, that they're lives are in danger. He believes that once the people believe that, they will want to join Russia. What I'm suggesting would show the people of those oblasts that they are respected and accepted. That Ukraine will give them all the protections they want: protect their lives from terrorists, and protect their language and culture. This would show the people of those oblasts that the terrorists are the enemy, not Ukraine. And anyone who provides weapons to the terrorists.

[cabrio]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

This doesn't make sense. The telephone poll published by the Washington Post states 70% of the people who live in east Ukraine want the borders to stay as they are now. The proportion is 93% for west Ukraine. Just Russian speaking people in east Ukraine: 58% want Ukraine to remain united, 27% want to allow regions to succeed, 15% don't know.

You're talking about the whole east of Ukraine. But the are cities like Kharkov which remain Ukrainian no matter what happens. And when you're saying that 70% of east people want Ukraine to be united, you're including the result of Kharkov, Mariupol and west side of Donetsk oblast.
But Donbass is a big part of Donetsk and Lugansk regions and have their own mental world. Their people are more Russian mentally. And I would even say that they are still Soviet people. That is the way they fill themselves.
I was really surprised when my friends who live in Donetsk region or have relatives there told me that they support Donetsk People's Republic and the separation from Ukraine. I was even shocked hearing that. Not everyone of my Donetsk and Lugansk friends supports separation, but there are lot of then who does.
And I have no idea how to convince them to take the opposite meaning.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

But the people of east Ukraine want rights for their Russian language and culture, and want more autonomy. And to emphasize this point: more autonomy, but as part of Ukraine. That does not mean "people of Lugansk and Donetsk don't feel themselves as Ukrainians". In fact that means the separatists are a minority. They're a minority with guns, but a minority.

They want money and to be in charge. I would be happy if they really were minority, but nobody can tell you now, whether they are a minority or majority. There is no objective data at the moment.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

This is why I suggested treating east Ukraine like Quebec. That gives the people who live there what they want, while keeping them as part of Ukraine. What Putin is trying to do is convince the people of Lugansk and Donetsk that Ukraine is the enemy, that they're lives are in danger. He believes that once the people believe that, they will want to join Russia. What I'm suggesting would show the people of those oblasts that they are respected and accepted. That Ukraine will give them all the protections they want: protect their lives from terrorists, and protect their language and culture. This would show the people of those oblasts that the terrorists are the enemy, not Ukraine. And anyone who provides weapons to the terrorists.

That is very wisely. The worst thing is that what you're said had to be already done before the unrest appeared. And how to solve the existing problem in such unordinary situation is a big question?

Sometimes I have a thought to let Donbass go...

[Winnipegger]

In Canada, the federal government has jurisdiction over military, national defense, immigration. Provincial governments have jurisdiction over language, culture, education. There are other things, but I think these are the ones that would relate to Ukraine.

What now? President Poroshenko said he won't negotiate with terrorists. That is wise. You can't negotiating with armed thugs who think they can gain power by military force. Instead have Poroshenko make the offer I'm suggesting, something similar to provincial authority for Lugansk and Donetsk. What makes this difficult is there's no one Poroshenko can negotiate with. No legitimate politicians in east Ukraine, just insurgents, armed thugs that Poroshenko calls terrorists. So this offer would have be through the media directly to the citizens of those regions.

Ask police in that region to re-capture police stations. Ask the people of Lugansk and Donetsk to report to Ukrainian military the location of terrorists. Report location of tanks and armoured personnel carriers, they're very hard to hide. Report location of heavy weapons if known: MANPADS, heavy machine guns, etc. And for this to work, the Ukrainian military has to repond quickly upon receiving a report. People aren't going to make reports if nothing happens.

[cabrio]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

In Canada, the federal government has jurisdiction over military, national defense, immigration. Provincial governments have jurisdiction over language, culture, education. There are other things, but I think these are the ones that would relate to Ukraine.

Absolutely correct. And there are definetely things from Canada laws to relate to Ukraine. But it has to be done already even before any attempts to negotiate representatives of Donbass.
What is the sense to give promises of doing something if people are enough tired of leaves without figs?
I believe Poroshenko will be a good president and he is enough wise and active to solve all problems. I really want to believe in him.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

What now? President Poroshenko said he won't negotiate with terrorists. That is wise. You can't negotiating with armed thugs who think they can gain power by military force. Instead have Poroshenko make the offer I'm suggesting, something similar to provincial authority for Lugansk and Donetsk. What makes this difficult is there's no one Poroshenko can negotiate with. No legitimate politicians in east Ukraine, just insurgents, armed thugs that Poroshenko calls terrorists. So this offer would have be through the media directly to the citizens of those regions.

That's the thing. Half of people support terrorists, their brains are washed out by Russian TV-channels. Moreover, they think that the real terrorists are located in Kiev. What would you offer to Quebec if suddenly they would intent to separate from Canada and no promises or even real cases would work?

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

Ask police in that region to re-capture police stations. Ask the people of Lugansk and Donetsk to report to Ukrainian military the location of terrorists. Report location of tanks and armoured personnel carriers, they're very hard to hide. Report location of heavy weapons if known: MANPADS, heavy machine guns, etc. And for this to work, the Ukrainian military has to repond quickly upon receiving a report. People aren't going to make reports if nothing happens.

Half of police support terrorists-) And people rather reports to terrorists the location of Ukrainian army.
It's a real continuing of World War 2 in some people's mind. To be honest it's terrible.

[Winnipegger]

In Canada, before the referendum of 1995, the French language media in Quebec did say bad things about Canada. They did poison people's minds. The media found they could sell more newspapers, more magazines, more radio time or TV time, but saying bad things. So the Canadian federal government created the sponsorship program. They paid the media to say good things about Canada. That did work. Unfortunately some corrupt people took some of that money; it didn't all go to the media. That was a major scandal.

Does Russia language media in east Ukraine say bad things about Ukraine? Try paying the media to say good things. The media will say anything for money.

In 1995, the Quebec separatists tried to say they would create "Sovereignty Association". That means they would separate from Canada, but would still do business with Canada, sell all the goods to Canada that they do now. And they claimed they would remain part of Canadian international treaties. The rest of Canada said no, that separating would be like a bitter divorce. Quebec sells a lot of milk to Ontario, the large province beside them. But the rest of Canada pointed out we have a free trade agreement with the United States, and the American state of Wisconsin produces a lot of milk. And no, a separate Quebec would not be part of international treaties. They would have to negotiate separately. Furthermore, if they did separate, the rest of Canada would block a separate Quebec from joining the free trade agreement we have with the United States and Mexico (North American Free Trade Agreement: NAFTA). The separatists claimed that separating would be a way to get out of paying taxes for the federal debt. But we said if they separate and take 25% of the population, then they have to take 25% of the federal debt. The separatists claimed that all of Quebec as it is now would be a separate country, but not everyone in Quebec agreed. In fact, the northern Ungava peninsula voted before the provincial referendum; they voted 95% to separate from Quebec and remain part of Canada, if Quebec separated. The Cree natives voted 97% to remain part of Canada. The separatists didn't like that, they claimed they could separate from Canada, but no one could separate from Quebec. The Canadian federal government said if Quebec can separate, then these regions could too. Then there was talk of the English side of the city of Montreal separating from Quebec, remaining part of Canada. That's the largest city in Quebec. They *REALLY* didn't like that.

All this caused separatists to lose support. There was a referendum, and that was carefully run to ensure no cheating. To start with, all votes in the West must be secret ballot. That's so voters can't be threatened. Ballot boxes are cardboard, not transparent plastic. Tables are set up with a cardboard shield so no one can see how a voter marks the ballot. All ballots are folded so you can't read them as they're inserted into the ballot box. No one with guns allowed in or near voting locations. And no campaign posters in or near voting locations. No one in the voting room is allowed to talk about partisan issues, either side of what the ballot is about.

Another lesson: you can't hold a referendum while you're not in control. I was president of a community organization in the winter of 2001/2002. The hired coordinator told community members what to do, and tried to take control away from those who founded the organization. I tried to overrule her, but she refused to listen to me. She had split the organization into parts. Whenever one president or board of directors told her something, she claimed the other had authority. So I suggested we merge the organization back together. Then the board of directors would have clear authority. I did tell the members this could be risky, this meant an election for a new board, and that they would have to show up at the election. They all said yes, they would, but the process dragged on for months. Only 3 members showed up at the election. One lesson from this is don't hold an election when you have problems with subordinates. The voters want a leader who is strong, who can deal with a mess without asking for help. I know, the problems in Ukraine are much more grave, but the lesson here is not to hold a referendum yet. First the government has to gain control. If this mess drags on too long, then the voters in east Ukraine will no longer support the Ukraine federal government. I'm sure that's part of Putin's strategy. He wants this to drag on for months or years.

[cabrio]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

In Canada, before the referendum of 1995, the French language media in Quebec did say bad things about Canada. They did poison people's minds. The media found they could sell more newspapers, more magazines, more radio time or TV time, but saying bad things. So the Canadian federal government created the sponsorship program. They paid the media to say good things about Canada. That did work. Unfortunately some corrupt people took some of that money; it didn't all go to the media. That was a major scandal.

That sounds very familiar. But the thing is people watch Russian channels. I mean channels that belong to Russia and located in Russia. And moreover they are totally under control of Kremlin.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

Does Russia language media in east Ukraine say bad things about Ukraine? Try paying the media to say good things. The media will say anything for money.

Russia language media in East Ukraine either say good thing about Ukrainian army or just say something neutral. It's all about Russian channels. And I even know what you're going to say next - to switch of Russian channels on that territory. It is a good option but it has nothing common with peacefull giving addition rights to Russia language people of Donbass. Puzzle does not add up.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

In 1995, the Quebec separatists tried to say they would create "Sovereignty Association". That means they would separate from Canada, but would still do business with Canada, sell all the goods to Canada that they do now. And they claimed they would remain part of Canadian international treaties. The rest of Canada said no, that separating would be like a bitter diverse. Quebec sells a lot of milk to Ontario, the large province beside them. But the rest of Canada pointed out we have a free trade agreement with the United States, and the American state of Wisconsin produces a lot of milk. And no, a separate Quebec would not be part of international treaties. They would have to negotiate separately. Furthermore, if they did separate, the rest of Canada would block a separate Quebec from joining the free trade agreement we have with the United States and Mexico (North American Free Trade Agreement: NAFTA). The separatists claimed that separating would be a way to get out of paying taxes for the federal debt. But we said if they separate and take 25% of the population, then they have to take 25% of the federal debt. The separatists claimed that all of Quebec as it is now would be a separate country, but not everyone in Quebec agreed. In fact, the northern Ungava peninsula voted before the provincial referendum; they voted 95% to separate from Quebec and remain part of Canada, if Quebec separated. The Cree natives voted 97% to remain part of Canada. The separatists didn't like that, they claimed they could separate from Canada, but no one could separate from Quebec. The Canadian federal government said if Quebec can separate, then these regions could too. Then there was talk of the English side of the city of Montreal separating from Quebec, remaining part of Canada. That's the largest city in Quebec. They *REALLY* didn't like that.

Wow, what a wonderful story you've just told me. I never knew that.) It gives me hope that in several weeks we will have such ridiculous situation too. The bad side of our situation is that Donbass borders Russia and it's easy to join Donbass to Russia even easier than it was when Crimea was annexed.

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

All this caused separatists to lose support. There was a referendum, and that was carefully run to ensure no cheating. To start with, all votes in the West must be secret ballot. That's so voters can't be threatened. Ballot boxes are cardboard, not transparent plastic. Tables are set up with a cardboard shield so no one can see how a voter marks the ballot. All ballots are folded so you can't read them as they're inserted into the ballot box. No one with guns allowed in or near voting locations. And no campaign posters in or near voting locations. No one in the voting room is allowed to talk about partisan issues, either side of what the ballot is about.

Another lesson: you can't hold a referendum while you're not in control. I was president of a community organization in the winter of 2001/2002. The hired coordinator told community members what to do, and tried to take control away from those who founded the organization. I tried to overrule her, but she refused to listen to me. She had split the organization into parts. Whenever one president or board of directors told her something, she claimed the other had authority. So I suggested we merge the organization back together. Then the board of directors would have clear authority. I did tell the members this could be risky, this meant an election for a new board, and that they would have to show up at the election. They all said yes, they would, but the process dragged on for months. Only 3 members showed up at the election. One lesson from this is don't hold an election when you have problems with subordinates. The voters want a leader who is strong, who can deal with a mess without asking for help. I know, the problems in Ukraine are much more grave, but the lesson here is not to hold a referendum yet. First the government has to gain control. If this mess drags on too long, then the voters in east Ukraine will no longer support the Ukraine federal government. I'm sure that's part of Putin's strategy. He wants this to drag on for months or years.

You're absolutely right. First, Ukrainian government have to take entire control of Donbass. Secondly, there will be no need to hold a refferendum after that. New constitution provides large right and opportunities for regions. So everything they ask is already written out in new Ukrainian state order.

[Winnipegger]

I keep trying to find a way to resolve the situation. It isn't easy. The Ukrainian government has to regain control. And they have to protect citizens from terrorists. The problem is they have to do so without death and destruction. How? Those fighting to separate are not just terrorists, they're insurgents. And citizens who live there are at least not reporting insurgent activity to Ukrainian authorities. Some are helping. How to regain control without death? Obviously they have military training, and major hardware: tanks, armoured personnel carriers (APC), and MANPADS. As well as high calibre sniper riffles, machine guns, rocket propelled grenades, assault riffles, etc. This isn't going to be won by military force.

Find a way to win the hearts of people who live in Donbass. Once citizens who live there cooperate with Ukrainian authorities, regaining control will be easy. You can't win then hope to win their allegiance. First you have to win their allegiance, then with their support you'll win. That's not easy. I think that's what Poroshenko tried to do when he offered to negotiate with separatists on condition they lay down their arms. But I'm saying he has to win the hearts of average citizens in Donbass. Not hard-core separatists.

[Goober911]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/06/20 ... ked-tanks/

YANAKIYEVE, Ukraine — Seven Ukrainian troops were killed in overnight fighting in the restive east, an official said Friday, as clashes between government forces and pro-Russia rebels flared ahead of the publication of a presidential peace plan that includes a unilateral cease-fire.

Separatists who want to split from the government in Kyiv were operating tanks in the region, a particular sore point for Ukraine, which accuses Russia of letting the vehicles and other heavy weaponry cross the border.

Vladislav Seleznev, spokesman for Ukrainian forces in the east, said in addition to the deaths, 30 troops were injured in fighting near the village of Yampil in the Donetsk region. He said 300 rebels were killed, but that could not be immediately verified.

[DrCaleb]

$1:

Putin Asks Council to Revoke Russia's Right to Intervene in Ukraine

The Federation Council will on Wednesday revoke a resolution authorizing military intervention in Ukraine at Russian President Vladimir Putin's request, Interfax reported, citing the deputy head of the chamber's international affairs committee, Andrei Klimov.

Russian agencies reported earlier that Putin had submitted a request for the resolution to be revoked, citing the president's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/arti ... 02435.html

[PostFactum]

Play for public.

[DrCaleb]

PostFactum PostFactum:

Play for public.

Of course. I never understood how the Russian parliament could authorize military action in another sovereign country without actually declaring war - but at least Putin now will have to call it that if he moves military assets across the border.

[PostFactum]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

PostFactum PostFactum:

Play for public.

Of course. I never understood how the Russian parliament could authorize military action in another sovereign country without actually declaring war - but at least Putin now will have to call it that if he moves military assets across the border.

He doesn't need any paper to begin war, king is king. He does what he want.

[DrCaleb]

PostFactum PostFactum:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

PostFactum PostFactum:

Play for public.

Of course. I never understood how the Russian parliament could authorize military action in another sovereign country without actually declaring war - but at least Putin now will have to call it that if he moves military assets across the border.

He doesn't need any paper to begin war, king is king. He does what he want.

Saddam Heussien thought so too. He was incorrect as well.

[PostFactum]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

Saddam Heussien thought so too. He was incorrect as well.

Russian people are very and very patient, 70 years of communism, every day watching on TV that life is good. This "Russian empire" will be till Putin will die by his own. Hussein's special forces are kids in compare of Putins. 5 or more gathered people on the street can spend a night at the nearest police station. That's mummy of Soviet Union. But at least SU had money to make war.