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PostPosted: Sat May 17, 2014 2:49 pm
 


andyt andyt:
Jabberwalker Jabberwalker:
Attacking with the Ukrainian army is exactly what the Russians want them to do. They would be playing by the Russian script. The Ukraine has shown great restraint and, so far, the worst has not happened. It is an extremely difficult balancing act that they are engaged in but there is evidence that it is working. Consider the occupiers to be dangerous criminals rather than a military foe.

Everything may change after the election, though.


Nobody is talking about Ukraine attacking Russia. Unfortunately Ukraine is caught in a trap. If they attack the insurgents Russia may roll tanks. If Ukraine stands idly by, the insurgents just win without Russia rolling tanks. Good for Ukraine for choosing to not just stand idly by, as they did in the beginning. It appears Russia doesn't actually want to invade Ukaine, they just want to destabilize it enough to make it form a looser union that Russia can have more control over.

We don't just let dangerous criminals do what they want either, and use force of arms when they resist arrest.


Ukraine Govt had to wait, identify who was and who was not loyal. Rushing in guns a blazing would have given Putin exactly what he wanted.
The bringing other power brokers on side. Like the fellow who owns all those steel mills.
Ten it was one hesitating step at a time. And guess what Andy, it appears to have worked. How would your plan have worked. I am sure you had a plan, so why not post it.
Old Army saying- Fail to plan, plan to fail.

As to the % of East Ukraine that supports becoming part of Russia, is not that high.
The majority want SFA to do we Putin.


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PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 6:42 am
 


So today:
1. In Slovyansk near 100 terrorists have been eliminated by Ukrainian forces.
2. The head of Separatists claims that Ukrainian men don't want to take part in their actions anymore. And says to woman that they must join.
3. Separatists shoot granny with her little granddaughter at the bus station, a man who didn't stop for their ask and a farmer who was helping to Ukrainian forces with food.
4. Russian media take video from North of Caucasus and say that it is from Ukraine.
5. Russians are trying to take to Russia bodies of Separatists. Ukrainian soldiers said that they saw few trucks with bodies.
6. Few separatists arrived to Charkiv and say that they won't agree with elections at 25-th of May.
7. Separatist meeting today in Donezk

Image
P.S. I see victory is close.
8. Crimean Tatars were not allowed to make meeting for 70-th anniversary of deportation at the center of Simferopol. They made it near the city. Russians surrounded them with cops and army, army Helicopters were flying on short distance near them to make noise for not hearing what people on scene say.


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PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 6:49 am
 


Photos of today's Crimean Tatars meeting near Simferopol (Capital of Crimea):

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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 1:45 am
 


Putin said that Russian army is moving back from Ukrainian border to their permanent places of dislocation.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 9:39 am
 


So today:
1. Putin said that his army have to go away from Ukrainian border to the places of permanent dislocation. (NATO still doesn't see it yet)
2. Separatists stopped receiving money, don't know what to do with corpses and are in panic.
3. Groups of separatists capture voting points on their territory.
4. 1 Separatist and 1 soldier of Ukrainian army are dead.
5. SBU sent documents about communists to judicial department for restricting them.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 9:51 am
 


andyt andyt:
Some people. With at least 30% of Eastern Ukrainians supporting the separatists to some degree, doubt if even the oligarchs can afford to bribe them all.


You don't need to pay off everyone just key people and heads of certain departments such as mayors of major cities. Maybe 1/2 of a % of that 30%. So lets say that 30% = 30,000 ppl, at most 1500 people will get paid off. Not all of them will get huge sums. Just enough to keep them from speaking up and getting others to do things.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 9:53 am
 


PostFactum PostFactum:
Putin said that Russian army is moving back from Ukrainian border to their permanent places of dislocation.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukrain ... al-n108821

"But NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters Monday the military alliance has "not seen any evidence at all that the Russians have started withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian borders.""


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 10:08 am
 


stratos stratos:
PostFactum PostFactum:
Putin said that Russian army is moving back from Ukrainian border to their permanent places of dislocation.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukrain ... al-n108821

"But NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters Monday the military alliance has "not seen any evidence at all that the Russians have started withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian borders.""

It's the chapter II of the same comedy. Chapter I was few weeks before.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 11:12 am
 


PostFactum PostFactum:
Putin said that Russian army is moving back from Ukrainian border to their permanent places of dislocation.


They must be running low on vodka.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 11:18 am
 


If, as PF claims, the separatists are not longer being funded by Moscow, that's a pretty serious step back on Putin's part, troops in the region or no.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 3:22 pm
 


andyt andyt:
If, as PF claims, the separatists are not longer being funded by Moscow, that's a pretty serious step back on Putin's part, troops in the region or no.

So Andy what is the plan now?

I was interested in seeing your other plan, guess I will drown my sorrows in a beer beer.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 5:22 pm
 


This weekend was Keycon, the local science-fiction/fantasy convention. It's a weekend drinking party for nerds. Flirted with a couple women I see every year. Party! [B-o] :rock:

I give a presentation every year, about real space exploration. This year I talked about how to get to Mars. I reviewed various plans, including my idea. My plan is a modification of one that was proposed by a major contractor for NASA. It's practical. Since the American Congress does not want to fund a human mission to Mars, my idea is a Canadian led international mission, using Russia's big rocket, including Canada, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Italy, Japan, Australia, and the entire European Space Agency. Other countries may want to join in: Brazil, India, China. One goal is international cooperation. Peace and doing something constructive, not dropping bombs or shooting people.

To do this, Canada cannot afford price gouging of military contractors for NASA. They always charge 10 times what any job is worth, then deliberately cause cost overruns to increase the price even further. Those cost overruns often double the price, so NASA ends up paying 20 times what the job was worth. Canada can't afford that, so we would have to ban American military contractors. Those are the companies that are now called "Old Space", because they're old companies that have been doing work in space since the 1960s. To make this project affordable, those "Old Space" companies would have to be banned. I don't know how to do that without telling the entire United States that they're not invited. It would be a shame to exclude "New Space" companies. To use an English expression: "Throwing the baby out with the bath water." In this case I'm calling "Old Space" companies the dirty bath water, and "New Space" companies the baby. But Russia may like it if America is excluded.

The important thing is the boosters for the Energia rocket are manufactured in Ukraine. The Yuzhmash factory in Dnipropetrovsk. Furthermore, although the core module is manufactured in Russia, those fuel tanks are transported by the Antonov An-225 Mriya. Antonov is located in Kyiv, and the An-225 is operated by Antonov Airlines. So this conflict between Russia and Ukraine definitely kills the Mars plan.

Could this be used as a "carrot" to entice Russia to "play nice". To be friends with Ukraine, and use their influence to get East Ukraine to end their attempts to separate? That would be a prerequisite.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 5:23 pm
 


Details:
Canada hires Russia to launch 2 Canadian satellites. Each on a Proton rocket. Pay Russia 10% of the price in cash, the other 90% would be applied to restore infrastructure for Energia. I found out NASA had contacted the company NPO Energia in 1994 about using their big rocket, also named Energia. The price they quoted NASA at that time was between $60 million and $100 million US dollars to restore infrastructure, plus $120 million per launch. That would include the Energia Upper Stage. But that was in 1994. There was an accident. On January 1, 2000, ownership of the Baikonur Cosmodrome was handed over to Kazakhstan. On April 25, 2002, they decided to work on the roof of the vehicle assembly building for Energia. They had a problem of theft, so decided to store 10 metric tonnes of roofing material on the flat roof. There was a rain storm. The roof collapsed. The Buran space shuttle orbiter was in there, along with all Energia stages, boosters, and engines. They were all destroyed. Russia and Kazakhstan argued over who should pay for that, so it wasn't repaired. Today when I look at satellite images with Google Maps, I see the roof was repaired for one of the three high bays, but not the other two. I'm hoping that 90% of two Proton launches are enough, because that's all Canada could afford.

When I talked to one Canadian astronaut, he said Canadian Parliament would never authorize money to restore infrastructure in Russia or Kazakhstan. He suggested "hiding" it by doing it through satellite launches. Then I read an article on the internet, English language but from Russia. It detailed cost to operate the Mir space station, including cost of the Soyuz launch vehicle. Russia used that rocket to launch satellites. I noticed the price for the launch vehicle alone, including manufacturing, fuel, vehicle integration and launch services, added up to a total 10% of the price they charged the West to launch a satellite. So they have a 90% profit margin. Ok, Russia figured out this "free enterprise thing"; they aren't stupid. But assuming the same holds for the larger Proton rocket, then paying them 10% in cash would cover their cost. The other 90% would be restoring infrastructure for Energia instead of cash.

If Russia wants to include a Russian cosmonaut on the first ever human mission to Mars, the price would be Russia pays for the Energia rockets. Including manufacturing, fuel, vehicle integration, launch services, everything. And including the Energia Upper Stage. They designed that stage on paper, but never built or tested it. They would have to do that on their own, at their own cost. That would be their contribution.

This would start by launching the Ptichka space shuttle. That's the only Russian space shuttle still intact. And that shuttle was "sold" to a South African company. They dismantled much of the interior, and scratched the heat shield tiles, then the company promptly disappeared. The orbiter is still at Baikonur, in building #240, the orbiter processing building. Russia would have to put it back together, and replace the heat shield tiles. At their expense. But if they do so, Canada would provide one CanadArm, absolutely identical to the ones we provided NASA for their shuttles. Including auxiliary equipment and cosmonaut training. All at Canadian expense, but only Arm stuff. In fact, after NASA decommissioned their Shuttle, they gave back one Arm, the one from Endeavour. We would provide that one.

But the condition is they launch the centrifuge module to ISS. The centrifuge module was supposed to measure long term effects of partial gravity, such as Moon level or Mars level gravity. Italy paid for it, Japan built it, and NASA was supposed to launch it. It was finished and waiting at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, but NASA wanted to reduce Shuttle launches so cancelled it. I'm saying get the same parties to provide that module, but launch with Russia's shuttle Ptichka.

The space station would require additional power for this module. Russia had built solar panels from Russian science modules, originally intended for Mir2. Mir2 was cancelled; those modules are most of Russia's contribution to ISS. After NASA cancelled so many modules, they had surplus power from American solar panels. So they convinced Russia to not launch their solar panels. I would try to convince Russia that they can't rely upon American solar panels, they need to launch their own. Considering what is happening now, that shouldn't be too difficult. Of course the real reason is to provide additional power for the centrifuge module. This would require one launch for structure and half the panels, another for remaining panels. Together with the centrifuge module, that's a total of 3 Russian shuttle launches.

The Russian shuttle is launched with Energia. The American shuttle has main engines on the orbiter. When Russia designed a copy, they developed main engines that worked just as well. In fact they got a hair better fuel efficiency: specific impulse is 455 seconds in vacuum, while American space shuttle main engines get 453. But Russians couldn't get them to be reusable, so they put the engines on the underside of the external tank. That meant the rocket could launch without the shuttle orbiter. They also use 4 main engines instead of 3, allowing their shuttle to lift 30 metric tonnes to low Earth orbit instead of 28.8 tonnes. Just enough for a Russian politician to brag. This also means launching 3 times with entirely Russian crew before we trust any Canadians on that thing. ;) This may sound harsh, but actually the first Canadian astronaut flew on the fourth launch of the American Shuttle. They first launched 3 times with entirely American crew before we trusted a Canadian on it. So I'm treated the Russian shuttle the same as the American one.

Then Canada would design a spacecraft to go on top of that big Russian rocket.

There is some technology that needs to be demonstrated first. This will use aerocapture, which means aerobraking to enter orbit. That has to be demonstrated with an unmanned probe before using it for a human mission. We would ask the European Space Agency to do that, entirely at their expense. And we would use In-Situ Propellant Production, which means making fuel from stuff we find on Mars. The Mars Direct mission plan already planned to use this. The vehicle would land with fuel tanks almost empty; just a little hydrogen. Then technology from the 1800s would convert CO2 and hydrogen into methane and oxygen; rocket fuel. Each tonne of hydrogen becomes 18 tonnes of methane and oxygen. Mars atmosphere is 95% CO2, and at night it's just a couple degrees above the freezing temperature for dry ice, so collect dry ice every night. At dawn, seal the container then warm to sublimate. That phase change self-pressurizes.

Power for this would come from a small nuclear reactor. During Ronald Regan's Star Wars program in 1989, the US military developed a small nuclear reactor for space. About the size of a truck engine, producing 100 kW electricity. That's all this would require. The Mars Direct mission plan was developed then, so intended to use that. But in 2007 the US military developed a more advanced one: Safe-400. It produces the same amount of electricity, but much lighter. If we can't get that one, I'm sure Russia has something similar.

In-Situ Propellant Production also has to be tested with an unmanned probe before we commit human lives. The best way to do that is a robotic sample return mission. Not anything too fancy, just include a tiny little rover the size of Sojourner to collect samples from the immediate area. That rover was the size of a radio controlled toy car. Use solar panels like Mars Pathfinder or Mars Phoenix, or an RTG like Curiosity Rover; no need for a big nuclear reactor. Keep this mission small and simple. Return the sample directly to Earth with an aeroshell like NASA's Stardust or Genesis. European Space Agency has already expressed interest in a Mars sample return mission, but kept trying to get NASA to help pay for it. This time tell ESA to do it on their own; don't even try to get NASA to participate. The aerocapture satellite and sample return missions would be ESA's contribution. And ask ESA to design science instruments for use by astronauts on the surface of Mars. That would buy them a seat for a European astronaut.

I know one person in Australia who wants his country to participate. He pointed out his country has a deep space station for communication. And Canada recently repaired/renovated our 50-metre diameter radio telescope dish in Algonquin Park. One reason was communication with deep space missions. Between these, and Europe's assets, and Russia's, we should have enough communication to support the mission.

Spreading the cost between multiple countries makes it affordable. Something this dramatic demonstrates how much we can do when countries cooperate. One goal is to end conflict.

Do you think Russia would go for it? The first requirement is they stop the conflict in East Ukraine. Stop trying to take even one square centimetre of Ukrainian land.


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PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 7:50 am
 


$1:
Ukraine’s richest man calls for rallies against separatists
Factories sounded their sirens in two cities of eastern Ukraine on Tuesday and steel workers held a peace rally in support of a call by Ukraine’s richest man for protests against armed separatists who plan to disrupt a May 25 presidential election.

In his strongest condemnation yet of rebels who have seized strategic points in towns in the heavily industrialized Russian-speaking east, Rinat Akhmetov urged people to unite “for Donbass without weapons! For Donbass without masks!”

Akhmetov, a coal and steel magnate who has an estimated 300,000 employees on his payroll and enjoys huge authority in the region, said Ukrainians should stage a “peaceful warning protest” at their companies from noon on Tuesday when sirens would sound across the region.

The initial response to his call, however, was modest.

Kiev’s pro-Western authorities, who hailed Akhmetov’s move hoping it would trigger a groundswell of support from ordinary workers to change the dynamics on the ground ahead of Sunday’s election, may be disappointed.

Separatist rebellions, fuelled by cross-border propaganda from Russia, erupted in the east after Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich was toppled by mass street protests in Kiev in February.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... e18752377/


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