[andyt]

You thing the oligarchs would stand for Putin turning Russia into Cuba? Or the people who demonstrated against him in the last election? Or Russians in general?

So if I understand you right, Obama should just cancel all the sanctions? What's the point, right? So are you with the stand there with your thumb in your ass doing nothing crowd, or the full on, let's teach Ivan a lesson he'll never forget, nuclear war be damned, crowd?

[Public_Domain]

Jabberwalker Jabberwalker:

saturn_656 saturn_656:

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

Considering what is happening, why would any NATO country even think of selling arms to Russia?

The French will sell to anybody.

Anybody.

... often to both sides of a conflict.

To be really fair, the Americans are damn good for that too, especially for selling to future enemies

[Public_Domain]

andyt andyt:

So are you with the stand there with your thumb in your ass doing nothing crowd, or the full on, let's teach Ivan a lesson he'll never forget, nuclear war be damned, crowd?

How about yourself?

[Winnipegger]

The Russian economy will be affected a little by the sanctions. However, remember Russia alone, without any other country, has half the population of the US, or 5 times Canada. And Russia has trade with other former Soviet countries: Kazakhstan, George, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. Armenia and Moldovia are observers of the of the Eurasian Economic Community, not members, and Uzbekistan is suspended, but they trade. Azerbaijan never had anything to do with EACC, but they were a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States so they also trade. And that's just former Soviet states, it doesn't include Russia's other world trade.

Cancelling the navy ship contract with France might get their attention. Cancelling natural gas to Europe definately would, but Europe can't afford that.

[andyt]

Clever, those Americans. Sell weapons to your future enemy, then go and blow him up because he's become a threat to world peace. They just look stupid to trick everybody. That's why they have the Rumsfeld breeding program. There's plenty more where he came from.

[andyt]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

The Russian economy will be affected a little by the sanctions. However, remember Russia alone, without any other country, has half the population of the US, or 5 times Canada. And Russia has trade with other former Soviet countries: Kazakhstan, George, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. Armenia and Moldovia are observers of the of the Eurasian Economic Community, not members, and Uzbekistan is suspended, but they trade. Azerbaijan never had anything to do with EACC, but they were a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States so they also trade. And that's just former Soviet states, it doesn't include Russia's other world trade.

Cancelling the navy ship contract with France might get their attention. Cancelling natural gas to Europe definitely would, but Europe can't afford that.

Time to seek other sources, like us for instance. Europe should never have let itself get that dependent on a country that has shown before is willing to play silly buggers with the gas supply.

The immediate action they could take is Britain seizing or at least freezing the assets of the oligarchs. Get Putine's attention real fast.


Those arguing against sanctions, real ones with teeth, what do they propose? We're not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, so that would mean doing nothing except calling Putin names while we keep daring him to step over a line and then retreat and draw a new line when he does.

Ukraine is in exactly the same position. They can't go to war with Russia. But standing by and doing nothing about the insurgents, as they had bee doing, just hands Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter. Doesn't have to lift a finger. Confronting the insurgents at least puts up resistance, and makes Putin have to calculate whether he is prepared to invade Ukraine, But then, since it's argued that we shouldn't impose sanctions on him, that wouldn't have any cost for him either. Just business as usual and let's hope that the Baltic states aren't next.

[andyt]

$1:

Here's How Obama's Russia Sanctions Will Destroy Vladimir Putin

The US Treasury Department announced further sanctions today on seven Russian officials and 17 Russian companies, including Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, several financial institutions and a number of firms connected to the energy sector. These will include visa bans, asset freezes and further restrictions on trade.

When the first round of sanctions were imposed, the Russians largely laughed them off and critics of the administration pounced. How could visa bans and asset freezes affect the calculus of Putin’s most ardent supporters? What effect will it have on the ones don’t travel extensively the West or keep assets in foreign banks?


Yet this line of reasoning betrays a deep misunderstanding about the purpose and effects of the sanctions. They are, in fact, a new breed of financial warfare that the Treasury department has been honing since 9/11, which rely on new legislation such as Section 311 of the Patriot Act and “know your customer” banking rules.

Originally, these rules were designed to lock terrorists out of the global financial system. As Juan Zarate, one of architects of the new techniques, explains in his book Treasury’s War:

The point was not necessarily to freeze assets in US banks—though that was a benefit—but instead to use the designations to make it harder for individuals who were financing terrorists to access the formal financial system. Our analyses therefore focused on the networks of actors and institutions providing the financial backbone to the terrorist enterprises.

Before long, the new techniques were expanded beyond counterterrorism and deployed against nation states, such as North Korea and Iran, to great effect. When coordinated with allies these are even more effective, but are powerful even if pursued unilaterally.

That doesn’t mean that the sanctions will deter Putin—like any lunatic out on a ledge, the decision to jump is his alone—but his actions will incur ever increasing costs that will undermine his already weak regime.

To understand how the sanctions work, let’s look at the case of Vladimir Yakunin, Putin’s close friend and the head of Russian Railways. He told the Financial Times, “I did not intend to travel to the US. I have no assets. So it does not bother me at all.” Even if we assume he’s telling the truth about his assets (which is doubtful), the sanctions still hit hard.

While asset freezes and visa bans are somewhat of a nuisance—Yakunin’s children live abroad—the real strength of the sanctions lie in the fact that they are designations. In effect, they are the financial equivalent of leprosy, discouraging financial institutions from touching the targeted entity in any way.


What many people don’t realize is just how pervasive the US financial system is. If, for example, Mr. Yakunin wanted to buy a nice vacation house in Dubai. He’d have to pay for it somehow. Yet to transfer the money, he would need to use a bank and that’s where things get difficult. Every financial institution needs a correspondent banking relationship with a US entity in order to do business.

The penalties for defying US Treasury designations can be quite severe—HSBC was fined $1.9 billion—and if the offending bank wants to continue to do business in the US, it complies. In effect, once you are designated, you are cut off from the international financial system.

Further, the sanctions apply not only people like Yakunin, but also entities they control. In his case, Bank Rossiya was also designated. So it can no longer do business with any bank that deals in dollars either. In fact, they can’t deal with any entity that does business in the US, which is why Visa and MasterCard MA +0.15% cut off service.

The new sanctions tighten the noose even further because companies in the financial and energy sectors are now being targeted aggressively. That means that their ability to do business internationally will be greatly curtailed. The EU will be announcing their own sanctions later today, magnifying the impact.

And it doesn’t stop there. Because the sanctions are designed to be incremental, nobody knows for sure who will show up on the list next. So the entire Russian economy is effectively being isolated in a much more effective way than it would be under a traditional sanctions regime. It is not specific activity that is being proscribed, but financial relationships themselves.

The effects are already being felt. Russian corporations can’t roll over their loans and have had to cancel IPO’s. The Russian government has had to call off all but two bond auctions since the beginning of the crisis. This adds to capital flight, puts pressure on the Ruble and creates inflation. At the same time, it limits investment in the country and lowers income.


Recognizing the serious peril the Russian economy finds itself in, Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded Russia to one level above junk status, which will lead to further capital outflows as bond funds reallocate their portfolio’s to manage risk. And the crises is still young, things will only go downhill from here for Putin’s regime.

While it’s true that the nationalist fervor in the wake of the Ukraine crisis have increased Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, it is doubtful that will last. The May holidays—a big deal in Russia—are coming up and many Russians will have to alter their travel plans. Others will find that their credit cards don’t work. Foreign adventures become decidedly less attractive when they inhibit the ability to enjoy your life.

When Russians arrive back home, they will find things only getting worse. The Russian economy is expected to fall into recession this quarter and Putin’s continued adventures will only get more expensive. Before long, imported goods will become scarce and social payments will need to be cut. Russians will begin to remember what the Soviet Union was really like.

In the years to come, decreased gas exports to Europe and a softening market for oil could cost the Russian economy as much as $100 billion annually—roughly 5% of GDP. Putin promised a new stronger Russia, respected throughout the world. Now he is delivering an impoverished pariah state.

Perhaps most importantly, it’s hard to see how Putin will prevail. Ukraine is a big place and occupying it would take hundreds of thousands of troops—something Russia can’t afford financially or militarily. There is, in fact, very little he can do besides make threatening noises while Obama’s sanctions erode the Russian economy.

And that means trouble. Running an aggressive, authoritarian state takes money. You need a hefty military budget, a large internal security service, lots of money sloshing around to buy the loyalty of officials and extensive social benefits to keep the populace docile. Even a brutal, corrupt ruler needs internal support.

The truth is that Putin is a KGB operative to the core and, as David Paul recently pointed out in an excellent article in the Huffington Post, the KGB has been losing since the 1970’s. He has rather sloppily blundered into the same mistakes his predecessors made in Afghanistan decades ago.


As strange as it may seem, Vladimir Putin, the bare-chested, horse riding tiger hunter, is about to be taken down by a bunch of accountants.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/ ... mir-putin/

[stratos]

andyt andyt:

You thing the oligarchs would stand for Putin turning Russia into Cuba? Or the people who demonstrated against him in the last election? Or Russians in general?

So if I understand you right, Obama should just cancel all the sanctions? What's the point, right? So are you with the stand there with your thumb in your ass doing nothing crowd, or the full on, let's teach Ivan a lesson he'll never forget, nuclear war be damned, crowd?

All I asked is if you are looking for the Sanctions to work just as well as they have with Cuba. Now all you are doing is deflecting by using snide remarks. As I've pointed out before AndyT all you do is talk talk talk you never try to understand another's point and now you've made it plain you don't even read the threads. I've clearly stated from the start that the US/NATO should have done a show of force when the Russians started landing troops.

Sense we did not I was for far stronger Sanctions coupled with military assistance to the Ukraine Gov. in the form of weapons and advisers/trainers. This along with bolstering a military presence along other NATO states the boarder Russia. We would have to make it clear that any violation of Ukraine by Russia would be seen as an act of war. When and only when Russia backed it's units off the boarder and stopped instigating the Russian minority would the western forces stand down.

The current round of Sanctions have been of no effect and was known from the start that they would be of no concern to Putin or Russia in general. This along with multiple failures on Obama's part over his years as president has shown Putin that he can do as he wants with out any serious threat to himself or Russia. To continue down the path Obama seems to be going is equivalent to a child pouting and holding his breath because he is being ignored and that is exactly what Putin is doing ignoring Obama and his lack luster foreign policy.

[andyt]

The comparison with Cuba is idiotic. YOu know that. Russia has a huge financial system dominated by the oligarchs. Read the article I just posted. And that's just looking at what the US can do. I look to Europe to step up here too.

If you support something, don't ask the question in such as way that implies you don't. To equate Cuba with Russia is idiotic, as I said.

[PostFactum]

So for today:

1. One more helicopter Mi 24 dowm, was shooted with heavy machine gun.
2. 40-50 terorists dead after operation in Slovyansk, 8 Ukrainians dead too. Info is not full. Pro-russians were using heavy machine guns, mortars, ak-47. sniper rifles - most "Made in Russia"
3. In Antrazit region people saw pro-russians with portable anti-aircraft missile complexes, near Antrazit russians give fireguns and military clothes for those who desire - payment later. Info about military groups of Don kozaks.
4. Destroyed Russian armored train with separatists.
5. Putin is writing petition to United Nations and Council of Europe where he asks to make elections in Ukraine later, because of bad situation in Ukraine.

Nice video of Odesa cops, money make magic.

[stratos]

andyt andyt:

The comparison with Cuba is idiotic. YOu know that. Russia has a huge financial system dominated by the oligarchs. Read the article I just posted. And that's just looking at what the US can do. I look to Europe to step up here too.

If you support something, don't ask the question in such as way that implies you don't. To equate Cuba with Russia is idiotic, as I said.

Yet you yourself clamor for sanctions and sanctions only as if that will be the oh so brilliant thing that brings Putin down and ends this crisis. All I was pointing out is that Sanctions alone do obsoletely nothing to change a leaders or nations course in the short run. At best one could say that Sanctions maintained over 10-20 years some times brings about changes in the way a leader or nation conducts it's foreign affairs.

[andyt]

Well, now Ukraine soldiers are kicking some ass. Good to see. And so far no move from Putin - invading Ukraine is a whole different ballgame than Crimea was. Good to see at least some Ukrainian soldiers are willing to defend their country against insurgents.

$1:

Perhaps most importantly, it’s hard to see how Putin will prevail. Ukraine is a big place and occupying it would take hundreds of thousands of troops—something Russia can’t afford financially or militarily. There is, in fact, very little he can do besides make threatening noises while Obama’s sanctions erode the Russian economy

.

[Vamp018]

stratos stratos:

$1:

Actually, properly applied, they would bring him to his knees right quick.

Just like those sanctions got Castro out of Cuba?

Excellent point and check

[andyt]

Vamp018 Vamp018:

stratos stratos:

$1:

Actually, properly applied, they would bring him to his knees right quick.

Just like those sanctions got Castro out of Cuba?

Excellent point and check

so no sanctions for you? STratos already weaseled out, turns out he's for sanctions after all.

So what about you. Are you with the do nothing crowd or the invade Russia bozos? Or just empty gesture saber rattling with no intention of following thru?

[stratos]

$1:

so no sanctions for you? STratos already weaseled out, turns out he's for sanctions after all.

No turns out I am for Sanctions coupled with military show of force and use of said force if so needed. As I pointed out and you once again failed to understand is that Sanctions alone do not work and are being laughed at by Putin. You think the type of Sanctions Obama have put on Putin are earth shattering and wonderful. They are a joke with no teeth.