[Goober911]

saturn_656 saturn_656:

We're going to find out right shortly how far Ivan wants to take this.

Shit is going south rapidly.

Now the West has agreed if Russia interrupts elections sanction will increase. All economies will pay.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html

The idea that you’re going to turn off the tap on all Russian oil or natural gas exports, I think, is unrealistic,” Obama said during the Rose Garden appearance. “But there are a range of, you know, approaches that can be taken not only in the energy sector but in the arms sector, the finance sector, in terms of lines of credit for trade, all that have a significant impact on Russia.”

Standing next to Obama, Merkel acknowledged that “further sanctions will be unavoidable” if Ukraine is unable to hold the May 25 presidential elections, although she added that this is “something we do not want.”

But, she said, “We are firmly resolved to go down that road.”

[BartSimpson]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

The obvious solution is what Andy calls Finlandisation. That's not a condemnation, it's just practical. Let Ukraine be neutral.

The time for this was before the Russians invaded Ukraine and sliced off part of it for themselves and before they started running operations to seize half of the country.

I mean no offense to you when I say that this kind of deal has been done before when Germany took the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. The Germans then used the same argument that Putin is using now. The Germans wanted to 'protect' German-speaking people and Putin ostensibly wants to protect Russian-speaking people.

Do we really want to set a precedent where stable international borders are replaced by the shifting tides of linguistic migrations?

The world is more or less stable right now and we need to keep it that way. Allowing this nonsense is going to cause serious problems especially in the Pacific where any number of countries have large Chinese populations. Do we really want to encourage China to invade Singapore or etc. to 'protect' Chinese-speaking populations?

Do you think for one moment that someone in China isn't thinking about this right now?

[BRAH]

The World was more stable during the cold war.

[BartSimpson]

Oh, hell, the party's started:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27259614

$1:

Many pro-Russia rebels have been killed, injured and arrested in the Ukrainian government offensive in the eastern city of Sloviansk, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov has said.

Lots more to this at the link.

Russia will likely invade now. Watch and see if they attack Kyiv from Belarus.

[BRAH]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Oh, hell, the party's started:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27259614

$1:

Many pro-Russia rebels have been killed, injured and arrested in the Ukrainian government offensive in the eastern city of Sloviansk, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov has said.

Lots more to this at the link.

Russia will likely invade now. Watch and see if they attack Kyiv from Belarus.

Yep, Putin has the justification he was waiting for.

[PostFactum]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Oh, hell, the party's started:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27259614

$1:

Many pro-Russia rebels have been killed, injured and arrested in the Ukrainian government offensive in the eastern city of Sloviansk, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov has said.

Lots more to this at the link.

Russia will likely invade now. Watch and see if they attack Kyiv from Belarus.

Can't Agree, Lukashenko is a "street king" too, he won't allow so easy competition on his territory.

[PostFactum]

Result of todays ations in Odesa - 43 killed.

[Goober911]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

The obvious solution is what Andy calls Finlandisation. That's not a condemnation, it's just practical. Let Ukraine be neutral.

The time for this was before the Russians invaded Ukraine and sliced off part of it for themselves and before they started running operations to seize half of the country.

I mean no offense to you when I say that this kind of deal has been done before when Germany took the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. The Germans then used the same argument that Putin is using now. The Germans wanted to 'protect' German-speaking people and Putin ostensibly wants to protect Russian-speaking people.

Do we really want to set a precedent where stable international borders are replaced by the shifting tides of linguistic migrations?

The world is more or less stable right now and we need to keep it that way. Allowing this nonsense is going to cause serious problems especially in the Pacific where any number of countries have large Chinese populations. Do we really want to encourage China to invade Singapore or etc. to 'protect' Chinese-speaking populations?

Do you think for one moment that someone in China isn't thinking about this right now?

Go back to the problems regarding the Russian Naval Base in the Crimea. This was coming. Crimea is Russian in their hearts, in their history and Putin played the card when he could.
If you use the Sudetenland, then look at a map of Germany prior to 1914.

[PostFactum]

http://tsn.ua/politika/zhertvami-pozhezhi-v-odesi-stali-15-rosiyan-ta-p-yatero-gromadyan-pridnistrov-ya-347944.html

$1:

During a fire at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa killed citizens of Russia and the breakaway republic of Transnistria. As the correspondent of TSN , the victims of the fire were 15 Russians and five citizens of Transnistria. They choked to death on smoke. According to the latest Ministry of Internal Affairs Directorate , generally as a result of a fire in the House of Trade Unions killed 31 people . At this time the fire has extinguished , but its cause is still unknown. Recall that on 2 May in Odessa bloody clashes broke out between activists and pro-Ukrainian separatists. Read more: FSB provoked bloody clashes in Odessa to divert attention from the ATO - Pashinsky armed separatists attacked a pro-Ukrainian meeting in Odessa , which supporters united Ukraine met with local ultras "Chernomorets " and Kharkov " Metalist ". As a result, in the city center began large-scale fight, which was attended by hundreds of people from both sides. Finally , pro- separatist protesters managed to win .

[Goober911]

PostFactum PostFactum:

http://tsn.ua/politika/zhertvami-pozhezhi-v-odesi-stali-15-rosiyan-ta-p-yatero-gromadyan-pridnistrov-ya-347944.html

$1:

During a fire at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa killed citizens of Russia and the breakaway republic of Transnistria. As the correspondent of TSN , the victims of the fire were 15 Russians and five citizens of Transnistria. They choked to death on smoke. According to the latest Ministry of Internal Affairs Directorate , generally as a result of a fire in the House of Trade Unions killed 31 people . At this time the fire has extinguished , but its cause is still unknown. Recall that on 2 May in Odessa bloody clashes broke out between activists and pro-Ukrainian separatists. Read more: FSB provoked bloody clashes in Odessa to divert attention from the ATO - Pashinsky armed separatists attacked a pro-Ukrainian meeting in Odessa , which supporters united Ukraine met with local ultras "Chernomorets " and Kharkov " Metalist ". As a result, in the city center began large-scale fight, which was attended by hundreds of people from both sides. Finally , pro- separatist protesters managed to win .

Being from there, did you not expect Russia would come for the Crimea if there was an opportunity under Putin? We saw the same in Georgia, but Georgia made a critical mistake.

[PostFactum]

Goober911 Goober911:

Being from there, did you not expect Russia would come for the Crimea if there was an opportunity under Putin? We saw the same in Georgia, but Georgia made a critical mistake.

Whay do you mean "come for the Crimea" ? They are already there, and I think it's for very long time.

[andyt]

Finally the pro-West side is waking up that they can't just sit on their asses and expect to keep Ukraine:

$1:

(Odessa)Waving the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag, wearing helmets and holding batons, thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to march in support of the European path taken by Kiev. Some were supporters of the local football team, Chornomorets.

In an attack tinged with football rivalry, pro-Russian activists, many wearing the colours of team Metalist from the eastern Kharkiv region, waded into the crowd.

Police soon lost control. They said the trade union building was later set alight.

It sucks, but doing nothing was just handing the place to the pro-Russians on a platter.

If Ukraine shows it has a backbone, it would be nice to see the West step up too. Especially Merkel, she should know what it means to be under Russian rule - put in sanctions that actually hurt Putin personally. Same with Cameron - Britain still slaps itself on the back for standing up to Hitler, it's time to stand up again, not rest on your dead laurels. I'm not talking about military action, but sanctions with real teeth in them. Ones that hurt the country enacting them, but hurts Putin more. Go after the oligarchs that support him.

[PostFactum]

andyt andyt:

Finally the pro-West side is waking up that they can't just sit on their asses and expect to keep Ukraine:

$1:

(Odessa)Waving the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag, wearing helmets and holding batons, thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to march in support of the European path taken by Kiev. Some were supporters of the local football team, Chornomorets.

In an attack tinged with football rivalry, pro-Russian activists, many wearing the colours of team Metalist from the eastern Kharkiv region, waded into the crowd.

Police soon lost control. They said the trade union building was later set alight.

It sucks, but doing nothing was just handing the place to the pro-Russians on a platter.

How was your working day?

[Gunnair]

PostFactum PostFactum:

andyt andyt:

Finally the pro-West side is waking up that they can't just sit on their asses and expect to keep Ukraine:

$1:

(Odessa)Waving the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag, wearing helmets and holding batons, thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to march in support of the European path taken by Kiev. Some were supporters of the local football team, Chornomorets.

In an attack tinged with football rivalry, pro-Russian activists, many wearing the colours of team Metalist from the eastern Kharkiv region, waded into the crowd.

Police soon lost control. They said the trade union building was later set alight.

It sucks, but doing nothing was just handing the place to the pro-Russians on a platter.

How was your working day?

As much as I haven't followed all of the back and forth here, I'm not sure why you seem so incensed that those in the west would expect Ukraine to stand up for itself if it wanted western support?

I think I understand the political intricacies here - Russia is a bit of a juggernaut compared to the Ukraine which is also suffering internal divisions - however, there doesn't seem to be much clarity in the Ukraine's position. Either let the east secede because they want independence or don't and be prepared to do something about in the face of Russian intervention.

[andyt]

If I have it straight from Dr Caleb in pm, it's not what I said but how I said it, I wasn't being sensitive enough. Not really a trait I associate with CKA. What got me going were circular arguments about why standing by was the only possible policy to prevent Russian invasion. True enough, the Russians wouldn't have to invade at that point, they'd just be handed the place on a silver platter.

Putin seems to be several steps ahead of everybody, but there are reasons why he might not invade. The population is about evenly split, so he doesn't have the overwhelming support he had in Crimea. He doesn't have troops already stationed in Eastern Ukraine. The West might just act if he invades further. But I'm not sure how Turchynov will be able to keep Eastern Ukraine - there's just so much pro-Russian support. I bet Putin would be satisfied if it becomes independent. He can gobble it up later when the West has stood down from it's already weak position and as busy whoring itself to Russian money.