[Thanos]

JaredMilne JaredMilne:

Careful there, your talk about patriotism in business is treading dangerously close to questioning the sacred divine wisdom handed down from on high in the holy texts of NAFTA and the other international trade agreements, and embracing the same Marxist-inspired heresy advocated by the likes of Diane Francis, Brad Wall and Peter Lougheed.

What you're advocating would be tantamount to government intervention in the economy, and the notion that markets can get it wrong sometimes too, the sort of thing that would make Ezra Levant throw yet another temper tantrum!

Granted, you're right about all that, but still...

It is what it is. Anyone saying that the government isn't the main driver of economic activity is either lying or just plain stupid. There will never be that clear separation of government from the market in the way that these little morons who jerk themselves, while reading Ayn Rand, to sleep at night want to happen. They can take all their bitcoin and colloidal silver to exile with them in Galt's Gulch and drop dead for all I care. They're as ridiculous as the type of Dipper that wants to nationalize everything "in the name of the people!" (trademarked). Just more people pushing a line of thinking that the entire human race would be better without.

What's going to have to happen in Canada is that the entire plan of shipping crude to the US for final processing has to be re-thought, if not altered completely. Notley and Trudeau, if they're serious about what they're now saying and not just in the back pockets of the environmentalists, have to push hard to get those refineries built on this side of the 49th. We have to put a permanent end to ALL foreign oil, including any from the US, from crossing northwards into Canada. Energy East absolutely has to happen or the rail system has to be improved to get more oil to Montreal and Halifax for export. It's up to us now. That oil price isn't going back up to $100 per barrel anytime soon, and possibly never will again, and any impetus for Keystone is dead as long as the Saudis plan to play this game they're doing with the price. The Americans aren't an enemy, they're just doing what they always do and putting themselves and their own politics ahead of anyone else, including Canada. It's now our concern to address, and do it right this time if that's even possible anymore.

[andyt]

Never happen. They'd have to nationalize at least part of the oil industry. Doubt it would even fly under NAFTA if it was contemplated. Or they enter into one of those govt/industry partnership. We know who'd get reamed in that one. Nope, far to late for anything like this, we've walked way too far down the "the market is the answer to everything" road to come back. Seems as if Trudeau pere might have had a point after all.

You talk funny for an Albertan.

[Thanos]

I'm only operating on reflex now. Odds are that my time in the industry is probably over for good. Not sure why I still care what happens around here, to tell the truth. No one gave a fuck what happened to me so there's not much point in my giving a fuck about what happens to anyone else.

[smorgdonkey]

Canada should make PRISONERS work the rigs and build the pipeline east and work the refinery - then sell the gasoline to Canadians at cost.

On a serious note: I give a F what happened to you Thanos, and I don't even know you. I give a F whenever someone loses a job who didn't lose it to carelessness, incompetent behaviour or some sort of abuse/neglect of their duties or power.

As for refineries being built in Canada...Irving had plans to build a big one and they mothballed it a few years ago. They only do something if they get huge government money to coerce them.

[andyt]

If the govt has to put in money, they should own the refineries. We should be owning our own oil instead of the Chinese and Saudis.

[peck420]

andyt andyt:

Never happen. They'd have to nationalize at least part of the oil industry. Doubt it would even fly under NAFTA if it was contemplated. Or they enter into one of those govt/industry partnership. We know who'd get reamed in that one. Nope, far to late for anything like this, we've walked way too far down the "the market is the answer to everything" road to come back. Seems as if Trudeau pere might have had a point after all.

You talk funny for an Albertan.

In theory, due to the US rejecting Keystone citing environmental concerns, Canada could nationalize the distribution of all oil under NAAEC, citing environmental concerns.

If the US (or Mexico) disputed it, they would pretty much be forced to drop the 'environmental concerns' portion of their rejection...which would put them into a fairly ugly NAFTA dispute with TC and Canada.

Our politicians don't have the balls for that kind of maneuver though, as it would put a significant chill on US/Canada relations.

For the record, I think a nationalized distribution system could be much better for us. Have each province own and operate their own refineries (perfectly legal), have Alberta own and operate refineries + upgraders (yes, we still get a little extra bonus, deal with it, and perfectly legal)...and milk a shit ton of money out of the oilfields, fairly well distributed across Canada.

If the Alberta government opened her own extractors, there would be squat all any current trade agreement could do about it. Let the remainder of the industry extract, upgrade, and refine per usual, but all primary distribution under the nationalized pipe system to ensure quality maintenance and monitoring...for environmental concerns, of course.

Edit to add: The same could be accomplished citing national security, which is essentially a get out of anything card that is in all major trade agreements that we share with the US.

[andyt]

Albertans and the oil corps were shitting bricks when the suggestion was made just to review the royalty structure. If by milk a ton of money you mean raising those rates, that would really put the cat among the pigeons.

If you mean the govt opening up their own sites, extracting the bitumen and then building infrastructure all the way to refineries in each province, I doubt Canada has that kind of money. Try to touch the current private oil companies in any way, and they would play hardball, likely shut down our production, so we'd have no income at all from oil.

I don't know what exactly PET did wrong with his NEP, but I'm thinking he got the big picture right. He may not have liked Britain, but he also knew that America has no business in the bedroom of our nation. Except as usual we Canadians, or at least Albertans, were focused on making the biggest buck now, never mind how it plays out in the future. Sell what we've got cheap, live high off the hog for a few years, let the devil take care of the rest. It's the Canadian way.

Even if the govt of the day had the balls, I don't see your scheme succeeding, just bankrupting us. We'd have our own, cheap, oil, but without those export $$$ rolling in, and the costs involved in the project, I doubt we'd make it. Probably a lot better to look at green technologies for energy, oil is a sunset industry anyway. Get ahead of the curve.

[peck420]

andyt andyt:

Albertans and the oil corps were shitting bricks when the suggestion was made just to review the royalty structure. If by milk a ton of money you mean raising those rates, that would really put the cat among the pigeons.

No where in my suggestion did I mention royalties for a reason. That is a provincial issue and is best left as a provincial issue. My 'milk a ton of money' comes under the assumption that each province, selling refined product, on the open market, is going to see a substantial revenue source opened.

$1:

If you mean the govt opening up their own sites, extracting the bitumen and then building infrastructure all the way to refineries in each province, I doubt Canada has that kind of money.

Get the ball rolling with refineries and ship via rail. Federal costs would be a couple hundred new rail tankers. Refinery costs would be born by the province, but let's be blunt, oil isn't extracted because oil companies loose money. The provinces wouldn't have that hard of a time repaying their debt (from refinery construction) just like any other infrastructure project. Not that it matters, a couple provinces already have refineries that wouldn't take much to turn into money makers. Use those to fund the rest.

$1:

Try to touch the current private oil companies in any way, and they would play hardball, likely shut down our production, so we'd have no income at all from oil.

Shut downs hurt them far more than they hurt us (due to said low royalty concerns). Let them bluff and bluster. Unless they figure out how to move the oil, that is all they have got.

$1:

I don't know what exactly PET did wrong with his NEP, but I'm thinking he got the big picture right. He may not have liked Britain, but he also knew that America has no business in the bedroom of our nation. Except as usual we Canadians, or at least Albertans, were focused on making the biggest buck now, never mind how it plays out in the future. Sell what we've got cheap, live high off the hog for a few years, let the devil take care of the rest. It's the Canadian way.

PET failed for two reasons. Setting up the NEP to be favourable to two provinces above all others, and an unfortunate downturn in the oil markets during its infancy. My idea is equal to all, and the market is already down.

$1:

Even if the govt of the day had the balls, I don't see your scheme succeeding, just bankrupting us. We'd have our own, cheap, oil, but without those export $$$ rolling in, and the costs involved in the project, I doubt we'd make it. Probably a lot better to look at green technologies for energy, oil is a sunset industry anyway. Get ahead of the curve.

A) Exports would increase under this plan, which is favourable to all involved. More production = more exports.
B) Between upgrading existing infrastructure, actual pipeline construction costs would be approx 4 times Keystone XL...so $28 billion or so (just pipeline)...project timeline would be in the neighbourhood of 10-15 years...$2.8-$1.9 billion per year. Or less than our federal deficit was (whole project) in 2011. No, it would not bankrupt us.
C) Green energy is one of the biggest drivers of the oil industry...ironically enough. So, have at her. Build all the green tech you want. It still requires a ton of oil just for the byproducts.

[uwish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw5LjZ3Q7j4

[peck420]

I have yet to see a scenario where Alberta is best served leaving Canada. There is more than a few fallacies in Zeihan's assessments.

[uwish]

please name them...if he is off, he isn't off by much!

[BartSimpson]

uwish uwish:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw5LjZ3Q7j4

He's making the case for Alberta to join the USA. It's a pretty good case, too.

But if Alberta leaves Canada then BC is effectively made into an exclave and Quebec won't receive their bribe money so they may as well leave, too.

Forgive the simplistic extrapolation but if Alberta joins the USA then the RoC (absent Quebec) may as well join the USA, too.

[Lemmy]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Forgive the simplistic extrapolation but if Alberta joins the USA then the RoC (absent Quebec) may as well join the USA, too.

If that happens, I'll be the guy up clock-tower with granddad's Lee-Enfield.

[peck420]

uwish uwish:

please name them...if he is off, he isn't off by much!

He's off by quite a bit.

His economic analysis is absent of the costs of conversion. It would cost billions just to make current government/labour contracts legal per US law. It would also cost billions to sort out the contracts required for us to continue to function (infrastructure).

These aren't things that Alberta could just say, "sorry, these be the new rules we abide by".

That is also a very short list of conversion issues.

His demographic analysis takes none of the worker migration patterns into account. We 'appear' to be significantly younger than RoC. But, appearances are deceiving. A great number of our 'younger persons' are young workers (with their families) from out of province. There is no logical reason to assume that they will just stay here if we leave confederation.

He vastly over estimates how Alberta would be treated by the US government, if we joined. Yes, we may become a 'state'...or we become another Puerto Rico....which may not sound terrifying to most, as Puerto Rico has had a fairly solid relationship and treatment at the hands of Congress. Than again, PR isn't sitting on a couple trillion in commodities either.

He's got a sales pitch. A pitch that, on the surface, seems good, but underneath does nothing but transfer a considerable amount of Canadian value to the US, for free.

[peck420]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Forgive the simplistic extrapolation but if Alberta joins the USA then the RoC (absent Quebec) may as well join the USA, too.

Simplistic? Yup.

True? Unfortunately so!

It would be a very short period before the west coast had no choice, followed by the remainder of the Prairies.

Ontario and the East would take a considerably longer amount of time, but it would be an inevitability at that point.