Your Complete Guide To Election Day And Night: What To Watch For And When
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It's almost over: the most divisive, theatrical, dramatic and dirty presidential campaign will be in the history books in just a few hours, with more than 130 million Americans expected to cast ballots across 50 states. However, just winning the popular vote will be insufficient: indeed, it may well be that the popular-vote winner does not win the electoral college.
So which states should one be looking at, and how long is the final day's drama set to continue?
For the benefit of the traders out there, last week we showed a primer from Citigroup explaining when traders can hope to go home on election evening, according to which it was "all about Florida, North Carolina and Ohio."
As Citi said, for traders hoping to capitalize on volatility next Tuesday as the election results come trickling in, it may all be over by early evening, at least if Trump loses. That is the calculation of Citi's Steven Englander, who determined that if Trump loses either Florida or North Carolina or Ohio "the math doesn’t work and it tells us that the shift to Trump was not as pronounced as feared."
Those states close at 7:00 or 7:30 ET. As Citi adds, even if Trump loses by a little in one of these states, it becomes almost impossible for him to win. It would take a tidal wave in a couple of states that look firmly Democrat. Citi helpfully added that "the odds that he loses, say a Florida or North Carolina, but wins a Pennsylvania do not seem high" at which point "vol collapses, MXN rallies and we go home early."
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