[xerxes]

CDN_PATRIOT CDN_PATRIOT:

Am I the only one that's not worried in the slightest about this?



-J.

At worst, I am mildly concerned. But as has been said before, the regular flu has killed more people this month already.

It's scary because it's new.

[PluggyRug]

Maybe some tinfoil here...

[bootlegga]

Sunnyways Sunnyways:

Let’s start with some obvious questions. Do we have enough of the following in Canada: testing kits, protective equipment, hospital beds, ventilators, drugs? My local hospital is already overwhelmed with geezers with nowhere to go - I don’t know where we’d put a big surge of critically ill patients. Does that sound familiar in your neck of the woods? This is the sort of situation where federal supervision of the provinces’ health care efforts needs to be much tighter than it usually is. Two former politicians I’d like to see involved somewhere in this national effort - Tony Clement and Jane Philpott.

Actually, Canada maintains the National Emergency Strategic Stockpile for just this type of potential emergency:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... kpile.html

[DrCaleb]

Coronavirus: Iran's deaths at least 210, hospital sources say

[Sunnyways]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Sunnyways Sunnyways:

Let’s start with some obvious questions. Do we have enough of the following in Canada: testing kits, protective equipment, hospital beds, ventilators, drugs? My local hospital is already overwhelmed with geezers with nowhere to go - I don’t know where we’d put a big surge of critically ill patients. Does that sound familiar in your neck of the woods? This is the sort of situation where federal supervision of the provinces’ health care efforts needs to be much tighter than it usually is. Two former politicians I’d like to see involved somewhere in this national effort - Tony Clement and Jane Philpott.

Actually, Canada maintains the National Emergency Strategic Stockpile for just this type of potential emergency:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... kpile.html

That’s good to know but I would still wonder about test kits for this infection and hospital bed capacity. My local hospital is nearly always over 100% occupancy at this time of the year.

[Sunnyways]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

Coronavirus: Iran's deaths at least 210, hospital sources say

So, something in the order of 10,000 cases at least.

[BartSimpson]

xerxes xerxes:

At worst, I am mildly concerned. But as has been said before, the regular flu has killed more people this month already.

It's scary because it's new.

The difference between the regular flu and this thing is the mortality rate of those who present symptoms.

What's clouding this discussion is that some people are (deliberately?) conflating the statistics of those who are testing positive for COVID-19 with those who are presenting symptoms.

If you test positive it doesn't mean you'll get sick at all.

But if you do get sick from this thing the mortality rate is running 18% to 33%.

The better analogy here is that not everyone who tests positive for HIV is going to die, but those who develop full blown AIDS are almost certainly going to die.

Ditto this beastie. If you test positive you may not feel it at all.

But if you present symptoms there's (so far) a roughly 1-5 chance you won't survive.

[BartSimpson]

In Iran a clinic with ten people who were diagnosed with COVID-19 was set on fire, reportedly killing all ten people in an expression of the sublime beauty of Islam.

[xerxes]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

xerxes xerxes:

At worst, I am mildly concerned. But as has been said before, the regular flu has killed more people this month already.

It's scary because it's new.

The difference between the regular flu and this thing is the mortality rate of those who present symptoms.

What's clouding this discussion is that some people are (deliberately?) conflating the statistics of those who are testing positive for COVID-19 with those who are presenting symptoms.

If you test positive it doesn't mean you'll get sick at all.

But if you do get sick from this thing the mortality rate is running 18% to 33%.

The better analogy here is that not everyone who tests positive for HIV is going to die, but those who develop full blown AIDS are almost certainly going to die.

Ditto this beastie. If you test positive you may not feel it at all.

But if you present symptoms there's (so far) a roughly 1-5 chance you won't survive.

Where are you getting 18% mortality rate from. I've been seeing 2% for the last little while.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[BartSimpson]

xerxes xerxes:

Where are you getting 18% mortality rate from. I've been seeing 2% for the last little while.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coro ... a-n1141321

$1:

43 cases, eight deaths connected to coronavirus in Iran

That's 18.6%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -rate/#hfr

$1:

A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. [9]

A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Previously I'd seen a stat that worked out to 33% or 35% mortality of presented cases but that's been lessened as treatment has improved and as the disease spreads to healthier people. The people most impacted initially in China were the elderly, smokers, and people with respiratory issues and their mortality rate (reported) was higher.

Even JAMA says the actual mortality rate is unclear right now due to a lack of testing to confirm infections. So people may be dying from this RIGHT NOW in, say, Victoria, but due to a lack of testing kits their COD is being identified as something else.

What we'll need to identify a year or so from now is to see if there is a spike in deaths worldwide in other causes of death and then correlate those to COVID-19.

But for now even the public figures are scary:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-ga ... hogen.html

83,700 confirmed cases. 2,859 dead. = 3.41% mortality rate.

Fucking Spanish Flu was around 2%.

[N_Fiddledog]

Patient's pet Pomeranian comes down with the disease in Hong Kong

[PluggyRug]

[N_Fiddledog]

Here ya go Chuck Schumer. Tell us what the cabbie did wrong here. Is he a racist?

[Tricks]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

xerxes xerxes:

Where are you getting 18% mortality rate from. I've been seeing 2% for the last little while.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coro ... a-n1141321

$1:

43 cases, eight deaths connected to coronavirus in Iran

That's 18.6%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -rate/#hfr

$1:

A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. [9]

A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Previously I'd seen a stat that worked out to 33% or 35% mortality of presented cases but that's been lessened as treatment has improved and as the disease spreads to healthier people. The people most impacted initially in China were the elderly, smokers, and people with respiratory issues and their mortality rate (reported) was higher.

Even JAMA says the actual mortality rate is unclear right now due to a lack of testing to confirm infections. So people may be dying from this RIGHT NOW in, say, Victoria, but due to a lack of testing kits their COD is being identified as something else.

What we'll need to identify a year or so from now is to see if there is a spike in deaths worldwide in other causes of death and then correlate those to COVID-19.

But for now even the public figures are scary:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-ga ... hogen.html

83,700 confirmed cases. 2,859 dead. = 3.41% mortality rate.

Fucking Spanish Flu was around 2%.

So it's not 18%.

[Sunnyways]

So far the mortality rate has been around 2%, so about 20 to 30 times higher than regular flu.

A new disease is a major problem when it rapidly affects a large number of people. The rate of change is the crucial metric. Depending on how quickly it spreads in Canada, this new infection may just make flu a little more dangerous or it may have much more serious effects and overwhelm our health system for a while. Regarding testing, look what South Korea has already managed:

$1:

SEOUL, South Korea -- Global health experts say the speed and scope of South Korea’s novel coronavirus diagnostic capability exhibit impressive and significant lab capabilities that no other countries, including the U.S., can match at the moment.

South Korea had tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus as of 4 p.m. local time Thursday, whereas Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say...

...As number of tests continues to stack up, several locations have set up "drive-thru" centers that could minimize contact between the potential patient and medical staff. This new idea shortens time spent on testing to just 10 minutes per person since the medics do not have to change quarantine suits for every patient.

Applicants must drive to the site in their privately owned vehicles wearing masks. Tests are conducted at a makeshift tent outside of buildings to prevent spreading indoors.


https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=69226222