[hurley_108]

Prominent Alberta Tory backs Independent over Conservative candidate

CBC News CBC News:

A prominent Alberta Tory is publicly supporting the Independent candidate who is running against the Conservatives in the federal riding of Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

And further down:

$1:

However, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview MLA Tony Vandermeer, who is supporting Uppal and is on the federal riding association for Edmonton-Sherwood Park, told CBC News last week he felt Ford is doing the national party a disservice by running as an Independent.

"Sometimes you have to think of the big picture not just in your own community and in your own constituency. This is for the Conservative Party of Canada, not just our constituency," he said.

You heard it here, folks. Constituencies come second to parties according to the Conservatives.

[bootlegga]

The former Conservative MP for Edmonton-Sherwood Park, Ken Epp, also refused to endorse Uppal, after the way he was handed the nomination.

Given that Epp won in a landslide in the past election, it won't make a difference if there is a Conservative split in the vote.

[hurley_108]

bootlegga bootlegga:

The former Conservative MP for Edmonton-Sherwood Park, Ken Epp, also refused to endorse Uppal, after the way he was handed the nomination.

Given that Epp won in a landslide in the past election, it won't make a difference if there is a Conservative split in the vote.

No, but if I lived in Ed-ShPk, I'd probably vote for Ford just on the off chance of an upset.

[bootlegga]

I do live there, but I'm not sure who I'm voting for yet...although if I wanted an upset, I'd vote for the Lib or NDP who appears stronger. Time will tell...

[Caelon]

bootlegga bootlegga:

I do live there, but I'm not sure who I'm voting for yet...although if I wanted an upset, I'd vote for the Lib or NDP who appears stronger. Time will tell...

<New to the forum and should intorduce myself. I apologize for doing so within a reply, but that is the way it goes. I thought about putting in a bit of background, but if I get involved in the discussions my opinions will become evident anyway. So Bootlegga you get my first response.>

I believe the last election for the riding had the Conservative candidate win by a measly 64% of the vote. There is a similar situation in Medicine Hat where the Conservatives had 80% of the vote last time. Traditionally independents have not done well in Alberta and I do not believe it will be any different this time around. What is the worst case? The independent gets 15% of the vote and Uppal drops to 50%? All the rest can split the 35% of the remaining votes and come in as also rans.

[Thanos]

This has the potential to be an embarrassing Chuck-Cadman's-revenge scenario written all over it. It seems practically identical to how Cadman was screwed by his local consituency association, dumped as the Tory candidate, and then got elected anyhow as an Independent. With a heavy-hitter like Peter Elzinga getting involved to support the independent, lightning definitely could end up hitting the Tories twice, even here in consistently consistent Alberta.

[bootlegga]

Caelon Caelon:

I believe the last election for the riding had the Conservative candidate win by a measly 64% of the vote. There is a similar situation in Medicine Hat where the Conservatives had 80% of the vote last time. Traditionally independents have not done well in Alberta and I do not believe it will be any different this time around. What is the worst case? The independent gets 15% of the vote and Uppal drops to 50%? All the rest can split the 35% of the remaining votes and come in as also rans.

Your rationale is a little flawed. Epp got 64% of the vote based on his popularity. Without his endorsement, Uppal will have to work to get 50%. I think Ford can steal way more than 15%, if he works hard.

If I want an upset, the best I can hope for is that Ford and Uppal split the vote and the the Lib or NDP sneaks in under the wire. Why vote for the guy who represents the party I don't like...especially seeing as he'd be likely to cross the floor to the Conservatives after the election anyways.

[hurley_108]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Caelon Caelon:

I believe the last election for the riding had the Conservative candidate win by a measly 64% of the vote. There is a similar situation in Medicine Hat where the Conservatives had 80% of the vote last time. Traditionally independents have not done well in Alberta and I do not believe it will be any different this time around. What is the worst case? The independent gets 15% of the vote and Uppal drops to 50%? All the rest can split the 35% of the remaining votes and come in as also rans.

Your rationale is a little flawed. Epp got 64% of the vote based on his popularity. Without his endorsement, Uppal will have to work to get 50%. I think Ford can steal way more than 15%, if he works hard.

If I want an upset, the best I can hope for is that Ford and Uppal split the vote and the the Lib or NDP sneaks in under the wire. Why vote for the guy who represents the party I don't like...especially seeing as he'd be likely to cross the floor to the Conservatives after the election anyways.

Good point. But these are the kinds of considerations voters shouldn't need to make. "If this guy gets this many votes away from that guy, and that guy also loses a few votes to theother guy then the other guy might be able to beat this guy and that guy and the rest of the guys hopefully don't mess it all up."

People should be able to vote for the person or at least the party they want to win with some knowledge that their vote is going to do some electoral good for that person or party no matter how the rest of the voters vote.

[Caelon]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Caelon Caelon:

I believe the last election for the riding had the Conservative candidate win by a measly 64% of the vote. There is a similar situation in Medicine Hat where the Conservatives had 80% of the vote last time. Traditionally independents have not done well in Alberta and I do not believe it will be any different this time around. What is the worst case? The independent gets 15% of the vote and Uppal drops to 50%? All the rest can split the 35% of the remaining votes and come in as also rans.

Your rationale is a little flawed. Epp got 64% of the vote based on his popularity. Without his endorsement, Uppal will have to work to get 50%. I think Ford can steal way more than 15%, if he works hard.

If I want an upset, the best I can hope for is that Ford and Uppal split the vote and the the Lib or NDP sneaks in under the wire. Why vote for the guy who represents the party I don't like...especially seeing as he'd be likely to cross the floor to the Conservatives after the election anyways.

Perhaps the number I suggested is a bit optimistic if there is a siginificant local controversy. As you live closer to the riding than me you are probably getting more local flavour. However can you see Uppal getting less than 40%? Under our election format that still means he will be the next MP. Although I am sure it has happened, I just cannot remember a time when an independent was elected in Alberta. I just do not see that Ford can take enough of the vote to let a Liberal or an NDP come up the middle. Even if they split the vote at 30% each the next highest candidate will only get 20%.

If you want to elect a non Conservative to be an MP your best chance is in downtown Edmonton or around the University. At this point it looks like 28 Conservatives will represent Alberta.