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Morning poll wrapup: Conservatives up across the board
Posted: December 05, 2008, 9:59 AM by Steven Woodhead
polls, Canadian Politics

A politician can hardly get away with sneezing in Parliament without a new poll being released these days. The political crisis that gripped the country for one week saw a flurry of polling — here are the results of a few of the latest, in case you missed them.

Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid released their poll yesterday evening, asking what Canadians would prefer: an election, or a usurpation of the Harper government by the Liberal/NDP coalition.

* 60% of those polled were in favor of an election over the coalition government.
* 37% were in favor of the coalition government.
* Support for the coalition was highest in Quebec at 50%, followed by Atlantic Canada with 44%
* 72% of those polled said they were "truly scared" for the future of the country (that number peaked in at Alberta at 90%)
* The survey involved telephone interviews with 1,001 adults. In a sampling of that size, the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points.

EKOS

An EKOS poll suggested that support for Stephen Harper's Conservatives had risen during the course of the crisis, despite the testy atmosphere on Parliament Hill.

* Harper received 44% support from respondents. That's a surge from the 37.6% support the Conservatives gathered around the time of the federal election on Oct. 14
* Meanwhile, support for the Liberal Party fell two percentage points to 24%
* The NDP dropped four points to 14.5% support.
* 47% said that a Conservative government with Harper at the helm would be best for Canada during the economic crisis, compared to only 34% for the Liberal/NDP coalition.
* 37% said they wanted a month's reprieve for Parliament to see if the Conservatives can gain back Parliament's confidence.
* 2,536 people (aged 18 and over) responded to the survey. Margin of error was 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Strategic Counsel

A poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel landed the same results for Harper's Conservatives; strong showings that creep into majority territory.

* 39% of Canadians favor the Conservatives
* That's compared to 27% for the Liberal Party
* A startling 42% of Ontarians would support the Conservatives according to this poll, a province usually known for it's Liberal leanings.
* With the U.S. election still fresh in the minds of Canadians, 41% chose the Conservatives as the best party to tackle U.S.-Canada dealings.
* Back at home, the Liberals were chosen as the best party to deal with Quebec-Canada relations (a telling figuration there), with 31% support on that issue.
* 1,000 Canadians polled, with an error margin of 3.1


COMPAS

Results of a COMPAS poll also show an increased support for the Tories.

* 51% support for the Conservatives
* 20% support for the Liberals
* In Ontario, Harper would be looking at a sweep with 53% of the vote against 24% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP
* In fact, the poll even suggests that the Tories could be gaining on the Bloc in Quebec, with 32% support against the Bloc's 35%
* Sample survey of n>500. According to COMPAS "by convention, sample surveys of this size are deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

[Gunnair]

Even the CBC said that if Harper had not prorogued the house and had lost the confidence vote, the election would have resulted in a majority. Understanding of course, him not wanting the GG to turn power over to a coalition (and I don't really know why because I doubt it would have lasted long and ultimately that trainwreck would have undermined the three parties belonging to it) I do question why he didn't take the course of an election.

[ridenrain]

Probably long enough to flood the senate with hacks and get off some large pay-offs to their union supporters. They were talking for 2 hours and I'm pretty damned sure all posibilities were thought out before he even started talking.

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