Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:15 am
i decided to do an analyst of the 4 recent federal by-elections to see how the liberals did in them compared to other years , they in fact did very bad
first off cumberland colchester , the liberals came in 3rd here but had historically came in second and won the seat once in 93 .
Nova Scotia
CUMBERLAND--COLCHESTER--MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY (2009/11/09)
Candidate Party Occupation Votes Elected
ARMSTRONG, Scott Cons. 11,167
AUSTIN, Mark N.D.P. 6,267
BURROWS, Jim Lib 5,193
BLANCH, Jason G.P. 807
HNATIUK, Jim C.H.P. 776
GRAVES, Kate Ind. 149
( iggy improved the liberal numbers over dion only cause casey had ran as in independent last time )
40 2008/10/14
CASEY, Bill business person 27,303 Ind.
OLSSON, Karen stay-at-home mother 4,874 N.D.P.
BERNARD, Joel E. senior policy advisor public safety 3,493 C
PARSONS, Tracy v.p. sales 3,344 Lib
SIMPSON, Rick retired 550 Ind.
( but lost ground when compared to 04 and 06 when martin was leader and liberals came in second here )
39 2006/01/23
CASEY, Bill businessman 22,439 C
RICHARD, Gary lawyer 10,299 Lib
SAGAR, Margaret minister, United Church of Canada 8,944 N.D.P.
FARRELL, N. Bruce student 910 G.P.
SIMPSON, Rick retired power engineer 524 Ind.
HOC
( so the by-election was in fact one of the weakest liberal performances in the riding in recent years )
next up hochelaga where the liberals came in third and had not held the riding in years but did usually come in second here .
HOCHELAGA (2009/11/09)
Candidate Party Occupation Votes Elected
PAILLÉ, Daniel B.Q. Economist 8,972
ROCHELEAU, Jean-Claude N.D.P. 3,421
DAVID, Robert Lib 2,510
CLOUTIER, Stéphanie Cons. 1,774
LEBEL, Christine G.P. 571
( in 08 dion actually managed to grow the liberal vote here over 06 election and sponsorship scandal year )
2008/10/14 MÉNARD, Réal political scientist 22,720 B.Q.
DICAIRE, Diane paralegal 9,442 Lib
ROCHELEAU, Jean-Claude labour organization president 6,600 N.D.P.
LABBÉ, Luc labour manager 4,201 C
LAROCHELLE, Philippe lawyer 1,946 G.P.
2006/01/23 MÉNARD, Réal political scientist 25,570 B.Q.
HARVEY, Vicky student 7,932 Lib
CASTONGUAY, Audrey human resources 5,617 C
GAGNON, David-Roger 4,101 N.D.P.
BRAMANN, Rolf freight forwarder 2,235 G.P.
( but we see the liberals historically did much better here and when martin was leader in 04 they got over 10,000 votes )
38 2004/06/28 MÉNARD, Réal political scientist 27,476 B.Q.
BOUVIER, Benoit airport coordinator 11,712 Lib
GAGNON, David development animation agent 2,510 N.D.P.
BERNIER, Mario business person 1,856 C
BRAMANN, Rolf freight forwarder 1,361 G.P.
( in 2000 the liberals came within 5000 votes of winning this riding , and ndp was beat by marijuana party )
2000/11/27 MÉNARD, Réal parliamentarian 21,249 B.Q.
MORENA, Louis criminal lawyer 16,143 Lib
HARBEC, Benoit financial analyst 1,751 P.C.
MORENCY, Stephanie educator 1,502 CA
NÉRON, Alex producer / director 1,227 MP
MIRICH, Milan restaurateur 767 N.D.P.
so after looking thru the results i have concluded the 09 by-election was one of the liberals worst runs in hochelaga ever as they hsitorically did much better here during 90's and 80's etc . iggy's candidate set a new low and was the weakest the liberals have ever run here . and the first time they came in lower than second in years if not ever .
next riding river du loup , the liberals came in third here but had historically did better and we discover thru research actually held part of this riding as recently as 2000 as the riding was redistributed in 2004 .
MONTMAGNY--L’ISLET--KAMOURASKA--RIVIÈRE-DU-LOUP (2009/11/09)
Candidate Party Occupation Votes Elected
GÉNÉREUX, Bernard Cons. 12,162
GAGNON, Nancy B.Q. 10,737
CATELLIER, Marcel Lib 3,768
LAPOINTE, François N.D.P. 1,363
MAROIS, Charles A. G.P. 472
40 2008/10/14 CRÊTE, Paul parliamentarian 20,494 B.Q.
LAFLAMME, Denis engineer 13,640 C
BOUCHARD, Jean financial security adviser 6,835 Lib
HERVIEUX, Gaston researcher 2,428 N.D.P.
GAUMOND, Claude psychologist 978 G.P.
CÔTÉ, Aubert food processing labourer 147 C.H.P.
( we noticed the liberal vote styaed about the same here in 06 and 08 and little difference between martin or dion's time as leader .
2006/01/23 CRÊTE, Paul parliamentarian 24,117 B.Q.
NADEAU, Daniel engineer 11,529 C
VACHON, Lise M. director, service centre 6,466 Lib
LEBLANC, Myriam student 2,107 N.D.P.
LEMAY, Serge development officer 1,768 G.P.
(the liberals used to come in second here as recently as 2004 but lost ground to conservatives in 2006 and fell to third )
38 2004/06/28 CRÊTE, Paul parliamentarian 25,327 B.Q.
MIGNAULT, Isabelle political consultant 13,124 Lib
DROLET, Marc-André parts clerk 4,040 C
CLERMONT, André teacher (retired) 962 G.P.
GARON, Frédérick professional/customer service 876 N.D.P.
the liberals in fact held part of this riding as recently as 04 so its not true that it did not vote liberal in all these years as they are trying to claim as gilbert normand was mp for part of the riding from 97 till 2004
BELLECHASSE--ETCHEMINS--MONTMAGNY--L'ISLET, Quebec
2000/11/27
NORMAND, Gilbert physician 19,163 Lib
LANGLOIS, François notary 14,973 B.Q.
ROY, Jean-Claude farm operator 4,224 CA
LAFOND, Suzanne production worker 1,636 P.C.
so the liberal perfromance under ignatieff was one of the weakest liberal runs in the riding in years . i have concluded after looking thru the numbers .
last but not least new westminster coquitlam . a seat the liberals have not hold in a long time but did used to do better here .
NEW WESTMINSTER--COQUITLAM (2009/11/09)
Candidate Party Occupation Votes Elected
DONNELLY, Fin N.D.P. 12,129
DILWORTH, Diana Cons. 8,753
LEE, Ken Beck Lib 2,514
HELPS, Rebecca G.P. 1,046
( the liberal vote was very weak here in 08 under dion )
2008/10/14
BLACK, Dawn parliamentarian 20,787 N.D.P.
MARTIN, Yonah teacher 19,299 C
HASSEN, Michelle department manager, not-for-profit 5,615 Lib
SMITH, Marshall municipal inspector 3,574 G.P.
( but in 06 liberals ran a former bc liberal mla and came in a strong third when martin was leader )
39 2006/01/23
BLACK, Dawn community volunteer 19,427 N.D.P.
FORSETH, Paul parliamentarian 16,494 C
MURRAY, Joyce reforestation contractor 11,931 Lib
BIGGS, Sven student 1,496 G.P.
( in 04 they did even better and came within 3000 votes of winning the riding but were still third )
2004/06/28
FORSETH, Paul parliamentarian 15,693 C
MCCLURG, Steve public affairs consultant 15,580 N.D.P.
HAGGARD, Dave former president 13,080 Lib
TRAVERS, Carli program coordinator/student 2,684 G.P.
HUMMELMAN, Jack salesperson 700 C.H.P.
( in 2000 the liberals came in second here ahead of the ndp )
2000/11/27
FORSETH, Paul parliamentarian 20,698 CA
RANKIN, Lee lawyer 14,529 Lib
WILLIAMS, Lorrie marriage commissioner 7,076 N.D.P.
REDMOND, Mike lawyer 3,492 P.C.
NANTEL, François C. retail and contract sales 1,028 G.P.
so after looking thru the results i have concluded the 09 election was one of the weakest liberal runs in the riding ever and one of the lowest raw vote totals ever for the liberals in this riding , the only other one even close to being that bad was 84 election which has to give the liberals alot to be concerned about .
so how bad did iggy do in the 4 by-elections by historical standards pretty bad i have concluded and some of the worse liberal runs in the 4 ridings ever .
