Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage$1:
- "optimistic" scenario: economic low point in 2023 with minus 8.3% GDP compared to 2021
- pessimistic scenario: economic low point in 2024 with minus 11.9% GDP compared to 2021
- all scenarios predict the intensification of sanctions
- no gas for Europe means minus 6.6 billion USD (400 billion RUB) per year, but new export markets won't be able to compensate for this even on the mid-term, causing higher inflation and loss of value for the RUB
- no access to critical imports due to the lack of alternative suppliers; this will cascade to the agriculture sector as well, which could force Russians to decrease their food consumption
- 200 000 IT specialists will leave the country by 2025