[EyeBrock]

Sock, a lot of those growth numbers are relative.

I think I'll be waiting a while for an Ethiopian lens manufacturer to knock out some Canon compatible zoom lenses, just like I'll be waiting a while for that laptop designed and made in Kazakhstan or the Rwandan SUV.

8% growth of fuck-all GDP is still fuck-all. China/India/Brazil etc, I will have. The rest of them on your list are still in the economic stone age.

[CommanderSock]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

Sock, a lot of those growth numbers are relative.

I think I'll be waiting a while for an Ethiopian lens manufacturer to knock out some Canon compatible zoom lenses, just like I'll be waiting a while for that laptop designed and made in Kazakhstan or the Rwandan SUV.

8% growth of fuck-all GDP is still fuck-all. China/India/Brazil etc, I will have. The rest of them on your list are still in the economic stone age.

Well, that is a strong (and mostly true argument), most of these economies are starting from a "low base".

China/Brazil were posting solid growth in the 70s, so countries like Ethiopia (no minnow at almost 100 million people) are the China/Brazil's of the 70s and 80s.

It won't be for another few decades when they start seeing really heavy dividends from the past decade of solid economic growth. But on the flip side, the bad thing for Europeans is, it will probably take that long for some of them to realize their economies haven't grown relative the Ethiopia, Myanmar Tanzania and so on.

After all China didn't start growing yesterday, they've been at it for almost 40 years now.

And of course as Shep mentioned, as standards and wages begin to converge, so will growth rates.

My point is, Europe is no longer really a place where as investors we should be focusing on. We should look South and East. Europe is in no shape to make us money anymore.

[EyeBrock]

I agree. I wouldn't buy any Euro stocks but the lack of solid governance, country and corporate in these emerging markets worries me. I'll stick with Proctor and Gamble etc.

[martin14]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14149164

Italian Senate passes austerity package

$1:

Italy raised 2.97bn euros ($4.2bn; £2.6bn) through a sale of 15-year government bonds on Thursday, but had to offer a 5.9% rate of return - an all-time high for such bonds.

What is normally a non news things actually made it onto the news.

These cuts will push Italy into negative growth, unless they get the economy moving.

And, of course, the ffing price of gas will go up..again.


This will not go over well.

[EyeBrock]

The great Euro-socialist dream is about to end Martin.

[fifeboy]

CommanderSock CommanderSock:

Is that why the 3rd world is outgrowing the west by massive margins?

The problem with things like this, in my opinion is if you have two countries(way extreme example), one with a GDP of , say 10$ and another of 100 000 000 000$. The low end economy does not need much to happen to get a 10% increase in GDP and the upper end economy needs a wheelbarrow full of growth to get even a twitch on the screen. In Angola, one farmer showing up at market with an extra load of bananas would cause a noticeable increase.

[martin14]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

The great Euro-socialist dream is about to end Martin.

Yup.

Most of the Italians I know are cutting back on holidays this year,
a clear sign something is wrong.

That, combines with this budget, will mean less services, less benefits,
and higher costs all around.

Price of food will go up again too, something people in Canada may watch out for.....
again.


Most are expecting the Greeks to default at some point this year.

Just glad I'm not in Spain, though, they have real problems down there.

[PublicAnimalNo9]

martin14 martin14:

Just glad I'm not in Spain, though, they have real problems down there.

Well as long as Germany stays out of it... this time

[martin14]

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

martin14 martin14:

Just glad I'm not in Spain, though, they have real problems down there.

Well as long as Germany stays out of it... this time

Who do you think is ponying up the dough for all these loans ?

Who do you think is getting the banks to pick up these bonds at 6% ?



Greece, is 10 million people, it's nothing serious from a financial point of view.
Italy (50) and Spain (40) are.

[CommanderSock]

I abselutely agree that the political risk is unbelievable in some of these countries, honestly mostly Africa (LatAm has been ok for the past few decades, except for a few small incidents).

For Africa however, extra caution is required. Finding a good "niche", and getting to know the actual country. 53 nations that behave like 300 nations.

I'll digress here:

For example Kenya has the best electronic money transfer system in the world, and no one is even close yet. I was heavily impressed with the technology called M-Pesa (created by Safaricom, a Kenyan subsidiary of Vodafone). It basically allows for banking transactions without ever needing a bank account or a branch. I want to transfer $300 to a flea market vendor without having to go to an ATM to pull out the cash. Well I simply pull out my cell phone, he gives me his serial, I transfer the money from my telephone directly to the vendor, completely skipping the bank, in effect, cutting out the middle man and the fees associated with it.

These sorts of technologies and niches are great for investors. There's quite a few of them I've been looking into. While risky, their payoffs can be rewarding. Now Vodafone is planning to launch this new technology in India.

Who said globalization was bad?

[PublicAnimalNo9]

martin14 martin14:

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

martin14 martin14:

Just glad I'm not in Spain, though, they have real problems down there.

Well as long as Germany stays out of it... this time

martin14 martin14:

Who do you think is ponying up the dough for all these loans ?

Who do you think is getting the banks to pick up these bonds at 6% ?

I prefer to think of them as involuntary reparations

Ok, I gotta quit joking about this because it really isn't very funny.

[CommanderSock]

fifeboy fifeboy:

CommanderSock CommanderSock:

Is that why the 3rd world is outgrowing the west by massive margins?

The problem with things like this, in my opinion is if you have two countries(way extreme example), one with a GDP of , say 10$ and another of 100 000 000 000$. The low end economy does not need much to happen to get a 10% increase in GDP and the upper end economy needs a wheelbarrow full of growth to get even a twitch on the screen. In Angola, one farmer showing up at market with an extra load of bananas would cause a noticeable increase.

This is true. It is why they're called "frontier markets". The very act of urbanization pushes their GDP up.

[Zipperfish]

I'm getting paid in euros as of next month. Should I be worried?

[DerbyX]

Ask for Canadian tire money.

[martin14]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

I'm getting paid in euros as of next month. Should I be worried?

Not yet.

The month after, you can use 'em to start your evening fire.



But do you have a clause in your contract to cover fluctuations ?

I think the Euro could drop about 10% in the next year, unless
Spain defaults.. then all bets are off.